Home / MLB Projections MLB / Red Sox @ Angels BOS @ LAA

BOSTON

RED SOXBOS

36-46  |  Road

8
FINAL
Sat, Jul 4 • 9:38 PM ET
Angel Stadium
View Odds Details →

LOS ANGELES

ANGELSLAA

36-49  |  Home

1
Probable Pitchers
Greg Weissert
STARTING PITCHER

Greg Weissert

#57 | Relief Pitcher
@
Samy Natera Jr.
STARTING PITCHER

Samy Natera Jr.

#52 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Greg Weissert None-None 4.05 -- 1.0 --
Samy Natera Jr. None-None 3.97 -- 0.2 --
None-None W-L None-None
4.05 ERA Ldr 3.97
-- WHIP --
1.0 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 0.2
-- K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
RED SOX
53%
📊
ANGELS
47%
RED SOX --
ANGELS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 58%
Under 0 42%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+0.2
LOS ANGELES
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Red SoxBOS (-3.5) 0 AngelsLAA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Red Sox Cover

48.0%

Angels Cover

52.0%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around LAA +0.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LAA)

BOS By 1-2 runs

18.7%

BOS By 3-4 runs

14.1%

LAA By 1-2 runs

18.1%

LAA By 3-4 runs

13.0%

AI Model Projected Score
4.7
BOSTON
4.5
LOS ANGELES
Simulated Score
4
BOSTON
5
LOS ANGELES
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Red Sox Win
53% Win Prob
D
Sim Angels Loss
59% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Angels (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: +0.2
B
Sim Angels (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o8.5 Win
Proj Total: 9.2
C
Sim o8.5 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 9, 2026 LAA @ BOS 6 - 4
Sep 8, 2026 LAA @ BOS 6 - 1
Sep 7, 2026 LAA @ BOS 2 - 5
Jul 5, 2026 BOS @ LAA 7 - 5
Jul 4, 2026 BOS @ LAA 8 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Boston BOS
vs
Los Angeles LAA
2
Games Played
▲ 162
1.00
Runs / Game
▲ 4.04
.117
Avg (AVG)
▲ .234
.159
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .310
.250
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .369
.409
OPS
▲ .679
2
Home Runs
▲ 154
Key Model Drivers
Total Bases (L5) +31.8% more
Boston: 13.2 vs Los Angeles: 9.0
Hits (L5) +23.6% more
Boston: 8.6 vs Los Angeles: 6.6
Walks (L5) +11.9% more
Boston: 3.6 vs Los Angeles: 3.2
Home Runs (L5) +10.0% more
Boston: 0.7 vs Los Angeles: 0.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BOS Score 4.7 8
LAA Score 4.5 1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.7 / 0.2 1.0 / 0.0
Hits 6.6 / 8.6 4.0 / 7.0
Home Runs 0.6 / 0.7 1.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 10.6 / 8.8 6.0 / 9.0
Total Bases 9.0 / 13.2 7.0 / 16.0
Walks 3.2 / 3.6 6.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
89%TICKETS11%
93%MONEY7%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
87%TICKETS13%
93%MONEY7%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
84%TICKETS16%
79%MONEY21%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BOS Advantage
87-77-0 (53.1%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
LAA
62-100-0 (38.3%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BOS
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
LAA Advantage
(50.6%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
BOS
74-86-4
O: 46.3% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: 0.0
LAA
71-88-3
O: 44.7% / U: 55.4% Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LAA
BOS
LAA
BOS
ML
59% 96-66
50% 80-80
55% 89-73
47% 76-87
ATS
60% 97-65
58% 93-67
51% 82-80
48% 79-84
TTL
53% 83-74-5
46% 72-83-5
52% 82-75-5
47% 74-83-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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