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SAN DIEGO

PADRESSD

91-71  |  Road

7
FINAL
Thu, Jul 2 • 10:10 PM ET
Dodger Stadium
View Odds Details →

LOS ANGELES

DODGERSLAD

100-62  |  Home

12
Probable Pitchers
Randy Vasquez
STARTING PITCHER

Randy Vasquez

#98 | Starting Pitcher
@
Roki Sasaki
STARTING PITCHER

Roki Sasaki

#11 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Randy Vasquez 6-5 4.71 1.40 3.0 --
Roki Sasaki 3-4 5.40 1.29 3.0 3
6-5 W-L 3-4
4.71 Ldr ERA 5.40
1.40 WHIP Ldr 1.29
3.0 IP (Innings Pitched) 3.0
-- K (Strikeouts) Ldr 3
AI Model Win Probability
PADRES
33%
📊
DODGERS
67%
PADRES --
DODGERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 48%
Under 0 52%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.1
LOS ANGELES
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.1 points (Los Angeles)
PadresSD (-3.5) 0 DodgersLAD (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Padres Cover

30.0%

Dodgers Cover

70.0%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around LAD -2.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LAD)

SD By 1-2 runs

13.3%

SD By 3-4 runs

7.6%

LAD By 1-2 runs

19.5%

LAD By 3-4 runs

18.6%

AI Model Projected Score
3.5
SAN DIEGO
5.6
LOS ANGELES
Simulated Score
6
SAN DIEGO
4
LOS ANGELES
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI Dodgers Win
67% Win Prob
B
Sim Padres Loss
70% Win Prob
A
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Dodgers (-1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.1
C
Sim Padres (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u9.5 Loss
Proj Total: 9.1
D
Sim o9.5 Win
Proj Total: 10.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 24, 2026 SD @ LAD 4 - 2
Sep 23, 2026 SD @ LAD 5 - 1
Sep 22, 2026 SD @ LAD 0 - 7
Jul 5, 2026 SD @ LAD 5 - 2
Jul 4, 2026 SD @ LAD 0 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
San Diego SD
vs
Los Angeles LAD
2
Games Played
▲ 162
6.00 ▲
Runs / Game
4.94
.328 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.257
.362 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.338
.563 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.424
.925 ▲
OPS
.762
4
Home Runs
▲ 204
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season) +5000.0% more
Los Angeles: 204.0 vs San Diego: 4.0
Errors (L5) +67.0% more
San Diego: 0.7 vs Los Angeles: 0.0
Walks (L5) +51.9% more
San Diego: 5.4 vs Los Angeles: 2.6
Runs per Game (Season) +17.7% more
San Diego: 6.0 vs Los Angeles: 4.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SD Score 3.5 7
LAD Score 5.6 12
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.0 / 0.7 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 10.1 / 10.3 17.0 / 10.0
Home Runs 1.6 / 1.5 1.0 / 3.0
Strikeouts 8.4 / 8.1 9.0 / 4.0
Total Bases 16.8 / 17.9 26.0 / 23.0
Walks 2.6 / 5.4 5.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
10%TICKETS90%
16%MONEY84%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
2%TICKETS98%
4%MONEY96%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
58%TICKETS42%
71%MONEY29%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SD
94-74-0 (56.0%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-:
LAD Advantage
103-63-0 (62.1%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SD Advantage
(57.1%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-:
LAD
(43.4%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SD
78-85-5
O: 47.9% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: +0.2
LAD
72-89-5
O: 44.7% / U: 55.3% Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LAD
SD
LAD
SD
ML
56% 92-73
51% 85-83
48% 79-87
51% 85-82
ATS
59% 98-67
54% 91-77
43% 72-94
55% 92-75
TTL
48% 77-82-6
51% 82-80-6
44% 70-90-6
54% 86-74-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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