HOUSTON
ASTROSHOU
41-44 | Road
7
DETROIT
TIGERSDET
35-48 | Home
5
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Hunter Brown
#58 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Kyle Finnegan
#67 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hunter Brown | 1-0 | 1.78 | 1.19 | 6.0 | 4 |
| Kyle Finnegan | None-None | 2.06 | -- | 1.1 | 3 |
1-0
W-L
None-None
1.78 Ldr
ERA
2.06
1.19
WHIP
--
6.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.1
4 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
3
AI Model Win Probability
ASTROS
45%
TIGERS
55%
ASTROS
--
TIGERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
67%
Under 0
33%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.5
DETROIT
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 points (Detroit)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around DET -0.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DET)
HOU By 1-2 runs
17.5%
HOU By 3-4 runs
12.1%
DET By 1-2 runs
19.1%
DET By 3-4 runs
15.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Houston
4.6
HOUSTON
Detroit
5.1
DETROIT
Simulated Score
Houston
3
HOUSTON
Detroit
6
DETROIT
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Tigers
Loss
55% Win Prob
D
Sim
Tigers
Loss
92% Win Prob
A
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
Tigers (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -0.5
A
Sim
Tigers (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -3.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
👑 Top Selection
AI
o8.0
Win
Proj Total: 9.7
A
Sim
o8.0
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jun 28, 2026
HOU @ DET
7 - 5
Jun 27, 2026
HOU @ DET
8 - 6
Jun 26, 2026
HOU @ DET
0 - 8
Jun 25, 2026
HOU @ DET
2 - 1
Jun 17, 2026
DET @ HOU
2 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Houston
HOU
vs
Detroit
DET
2
Games Played
▲
162
3.00
Runs / Game
▲
4.46
.169
Avg (AVG)
▲
.241
.229
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.320
.354
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.400
.582
OPS
▲
.720
4
Home Runs
▲
181
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+4425.0% more
Detroit: 181.0
vs
Houston: 4.0
Home Runs (L5)
+80.0% more
Detroit: 1.6
vs
Houston: 0.8
Runs per Game (Season)
+48.7% more
Detroit: 4.5
vs
Houston: 3.0
Errors (L5)
+48.0% more
Detroit: 1.2
vs
Houston: 0.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
HOU Score
4.6
7
DET Score
5.1
5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
1.2 / 0.7
1.0 / 1.0
Hits
8.2 / 9.1
9.0 / 7.0
Home Runs
1.6 / 0.8
2.0 / 3.0
Strikeouts
7.2 / 8.2
13.0 / 7.0
Total Bases
14.8 / 13.5
16.0 / 17.0
Walks
1.5 / 3.2
5.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
HOU
Advantage
81-83-0
(49.4%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
DET
76-86-0
(46.9%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
HOU
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
DET
Advantage
(51.8%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
HOU
81-74-9
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +0.7
DET
70-84-8
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6%
Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DET
HOU
DET
HOU
ML
54%
86-73
50%
81-82
54%
87-73
47%
77-87
ATS
64%
101-58
56%
91-72
57%
91-69
55%
90-74
TTL
46%
69-81-9
45%
70-84-9
46%
69-81-10
45%
69-86-9
Contextual Game News
Yankees and Braves Urged to Cut Ties with Underperforming Stars …
Jazz Chisholm Jr. Shrugs Off Yankee Stadium Boos: 'It Didn't Hur…
Yankees' Offseason Blueprint: Securing Bednar and Blackburn Key …
MLB Upholds Ejection of Yankees Fan Who Interfered with Anthony …
Yankees' Season Ends in Sweep as Boone Faces Fan Fury Over 'Brok…