ARIZONA
DIAMONDBACKSARI
41-41 | Road
1
TAMPA BAY
RAYSTB
47-33 | Home
5
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Merrill Kelly
#29 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Drew Rasmussen
#57 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Merrill Kelly | 5-7 | 5.84 | 1.52 | 6.0 | 3 |
| Drew Rasmussen | 6-4 | 2.45 | 0.88 | 6.0 | 5 |
5-7
W-L
6-4
5.84
ERA
Ldr 2.45
1.52
WHIP
Ldr 0.88
6.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
6.0
3
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 5
AI Model Win Probability
DIAMONDBACKS
41%
RAYS
59%
DIAMONDBACKS
--
RAYS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
75%
Under 0
25%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.9
TAMPA BAY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.9 points (Tampa Bay)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around TB -0.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TB)
ARI By 1-2 runs
16.6%
ARI By 3-4 runs
10.9%
TB By 1-2 runs
19.5%
TB By 3-4 runs
16.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Arizona
4.7
ARIZONA
Tampa Bay
5.6
TAMPA BAY
Simulated Score
Arizona
3
ARIZONA
Tampa Bay
5
TAMPA BAY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Rays
Win
59% Win Prob
C
Sim
Rays
Win
83% Win Prob
A
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Rays (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -0.9
C
Sim
Rays (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
👑 Top Selection
AI
o7.5
Loss
Proj Total: 10.3
A
Sim
o7.5
Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jun 28, 2026
ARI @ TB
1 - 5
Jun 27, 2026
ARI @ TB
2 - 4
Jun 26, 2026
ARI @ TB
1 - 6
Apr 24, 2025
TB @ ARI
7 - 4
Apr 23, 2025
TB @ ARI
7 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
Arizona
ARI
vs
Tampa Bay
TB
162
Games Played
162
4.56
▲
Runs / Game
4.54
.246
Avg (AVG)
▲
.258
.318
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.326
.402
Slugging (SLG)
.402
.720
OPS
▲
.728
166
Home Runs
▲
169
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+87.0% more
Tampa Bay: 1.9
vs
Arizona: 1.0
Strikeouts (L5)
+42.7% more
Tampa Bay: 7.5
vs
Arizona: 5.3
Total Bases (L5)
+21.6% more
Tampa Bay: 16.5
vs
Arizona: 13.6
Errors (L5)
+21.0% more
Tampa Bay: 0.3
vs
Arizona: 0.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ARI Score
4.7
1
TB Score
5.6
5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.3 / 0.1
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.8 / 8.1
10.0 / 5.0
Home Runs
1.9 / 1.0
3.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
7.5 / 5.3
9.0 / 5.0
Total Bases
16.5 / 13.6
20.0 / 9.0
Walks
1.1 / 3.2
1.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ARI
86-76-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
TB
Advantage
101-64-0
(61.2%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ARI
(52.5%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
TB
Advantage
(53.3%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ARI
71-85-6
O: 45.5% / U: 54.5%
Total +/-: +0.3
TB
76-83-6
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TB
ARI
TB
ARI
ML
58%
95-68
54%
87-74
58%
95-68
54%
86-74
ATS
60%
97-66
57%
91-70
55%
90-73
56%
89-71
TTL
47%
73-81-9
52%
80-73-8
51%
78-75-10
49%
73-77-9
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