HOUSTON
ASTROSHOU
81-81 | Road
2
DETROIT
TIGERSDET
76-86 | Home
1
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Enyel De Los Santos
#65 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Kenley Jansen
#74 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Enyel De Los Santos | None-None | 4.79 | -- | 1.0 | -- |
| Kenley Jansen | None-None | 4.26 | -- | 1.0 | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
4.79
ERA
Ldr 4.26
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
--
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
ASTROS
47%
TIGERS
53%
ASTROS
--
TIGERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
52%
Under 0
48%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.3
DETROIT
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.3 points (Detroit)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around DET -0.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DET)
HOU By 1-2 runs
17.9%
HOU By 3-4 runs
12.7%
DET By 1-2 runs
18.9%
DET By 3-4 runs
14.4%
AI Model Projected Score
Houston
4.4
HOUSTON
Detroit
4.7
DETROIT
Simulated Score
Houston
4
HOUSTON
Detroit
6
DETROIT
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Tigers
Loss
53% Win Prob
D
Sim
Tigers
Loss
65% Win Prob
B
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
Tigers (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -0.3
B
Sim
Tigers (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o9.0
Loss
Proj Total: 9.1
D
Sim
o9.0
Loss
Proj Total: 10.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jun 28, 2026
HOU @ DET
7 - 5
Jun 27, 2026
HOU @ DET
8 - 6
Jun 26, 2026
HOU @ DET
0 - 8
Jun 25, 2026
HOU @ DET
2 - 1
Jun 17, 2026
DET @ HOU
2 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Houston
HOU
vs
Detroit
DET
2
Games Played
▲
162
3.00
Runs / Game
▲
4.46
.169
Avg (AVG)
▲
.241
.229
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.320
.354
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.400
.582
OPS
▲
.720
4
Home Runs
▲
181
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+4425.0% more
Detroit: 181.0
vs
Houston: 4.0
Runs per Game (Season)
+48.7% more
Detroit: 4.5
vs
Houston: 3.0
Strikeouts (L5)
+30.2% more
Detroit: 11.3
vs
Houston: 8.7
OPS (Season)
+13.8%
Detroit: 72.0%
vs
Houston: 58.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
HOU Score
4.4
2
DET Score
4.7
1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.1 / 0.4
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.4 / 7.7
5.0 / 5.0
Home Runs
0.5 / 1.2
1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
11.3 / 8.7
7.0 / 13.0
Total Bases
12.1 / 13.3
8.0 / 8.0
Walks
1.4 / 2.7
0.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
HOU
Advantage
81-83-0
(49.4%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
DET
76-86-0
(46.9%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
HOU
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
DET
Advantage
(51.8%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
HOU
81-74-9
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +0.7
DET
70-84-8
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6%
Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DET
HOU
DET
HOU
ML
54%
86-73
50%
81-82
54%
87-73
47%
77-87
ATS
64%
101-58
56%
91-72
57%
91-69
55%
90-74
TTL
46%
69-81-9
45%
70-84-9
46%
69-81-10
45%
69-86-9
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