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ARIZONA

DIAMONDBACKSARI

40-39  |  Road

4
FINAL
Tue, Jun 23 • 7:45 PM ET
Busch Stadium
View Odds Details →

ST. LOUIS

CARDINALSSTL

42-35  |  Home

3
Probable Pitchers
Brandyn Garcia
STARTING PITCHER

Brandyn Garcia

#55 | Relief Pitcher
@
Gordon Graceffo
STARTING PITCHER

Gordon Graceffo

#44 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Brandyn Garcia None-None 2.50 -- 0.1 1
Gordon Graceffo None-None 2.92 -- 0.2 --
None-None W-L None-None
2.50 Ldr ERA 2.92
-- WHIP --
0.1 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 0.2
1 Ldr K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
DIAMONDBACKS
50%
📊
CARDINALS
50%
DIAMONDBACKS --
CARDINALS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 46%
Under 0 54%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+0.1
ST. LOUIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
DiamondbacksARI (-3.5) 0 CardinalsSTL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Diamondbacks Cover

49.0%

Cardinals Cover

51.0%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around STL +0.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (STL)

ARI By 1-2 runs

18.6%

ARI By 3-4 runs

13.9%

STL By 1-2 runs

18.3%

STL By 3-4 runs

13.3%

AI Model Projected Score
4.2
ARIZONA
4.1
ST. LOUIS
Simulated Score
3
ARIZONA
6
ST. LOUIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Diamondbacks Win
50% Win Prob
D
Sim Cardinals Loss
68% Win Prob
A
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Cardinals (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: +0.1
B
Sim Cardinals (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -3.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u8.5 Win
Proj Total: 8.3
D
Sim o8.5 Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jul 23, 2026 ARI @ STL 10 - 6
Jul 19, 2026 STL @ ARI 7 - 8
Jul 18, 2026 STL @ ARI 3 - 5
Jul 17, 2026 STL @ ARI 5 - 4
Jun 24, 2026 ARI @ STL 9 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Arizona ARI
vs
St. Louis STL
162
Games Played
162
4.56 ▲
Runs / Game
4.44
.246 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.239
.318 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.313
.402 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.378
.720 ▲
OPS
.691
166
Home Runs
▲ 167
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5) +44.0% more
Arizona: 3.5 vs St. Louis: 2.0
OPS (Season) +2.9%
Arizona: 72.0% vs St. Louis: 69.1%
Runs per Game (Season) +2.6% more
Arizona: 4.6 vs St. Louis: 4.4
Slugging Pct (Season) +2.4%
Arizona: 40.2% vs St. Louis: 37.8%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ARI Score 4.2 4
STL Score 4.1 3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.5 / 0.4 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 9.9 / 8.0 7.0 / 6.0
Home Runs 1.0 / 0.8 0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 5.2 / 5.0 5.0 / 9.0
Total Bases 15.1 / 12.3 9.0 / 10.0
Walks 2.0 / 3.5 6.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
49%TICKETS51%
69%MONEY31%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
57%TICKETS43%
85%MONEY15%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
77%TICKETS23%
77%MONEY23%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ARI Advantage
86-76-0 (53.1%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
STL
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ARI
(52.5%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
STL Advantage
(53.7%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ARI
71-85-6
O: 45.5% / U: 54.5% Total +/-: +0.3
STL
74-80-8
O: 48.1% / U: 51.9% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
STL
ARI
STL
ARI
ML
53% 85-74
54% 87-74
52% 84-77
54% 86-74
ATS
56% 89-70
57% 91-70
53% 85-76
56% 89-71
TTL
46% 68-81-10
52% 80-73-8
50% 76-75-10
49% 73-77-9
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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