Home / MLB Projections MLB / Red Sox @ Rockies BOS @ COL

BOSTON

RED SOXBOS

31-45  |  Road

2
FINAL
Mon, Jun 22 • 8:40 PM ET
Coors Field
View Odds Details →

COLORADO

ROCKIESCOL

31-48  |  Home

3
Probable Pitchers
Aroldis Chapman
STARTING PITCHER

Aroldis Chapman

#44 | Relief Pitcher
@
Brennan Bernardino
STARTING PITCHER

Brennan Bernardino

#83 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Aroldis Chapman None-None 2.08 -- -- --
Brennan Bernardino None-None 3.73 -- 1.0 --
None-None W-L None-None
2.08 Ldr ERA 3.73
-- WHIP --
-- IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 1.0
-- K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
RED SOX
51%
📊
ROCKIES
49%
RED SOX --
ROCKIES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 31%
Under 0 69%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+0.1
COLORADO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Red SoxBOS (-3.5) 0 RockiesCOL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Red Sox Cover

49.0%

Rockies Cover

51.0%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around COL +0.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (COL)

BOS By 1-2 runs

18.6%

BOS By 3-4 runs

13.9%

COL By 1-2 runs

18.3%

COL By 3-4 runs

13.3%

AI Model Projected Score
4.8
BOSTON
4.7
COLORADO
Simulated Score
4
BOSTON
6
COLORADO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Red Sox Loss
51% Win Prob
D
Sim Rockies Win
72% Win Prob
A
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Rockies (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: +0.1
B
Sim Rockies (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus 👑 Top Selection
AI u11.5 Win
Proj Total: 9.5
A
Sim u11.5 Win
Proj Total: 10.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jun 24, 2026 BOS @ COL 6 - 8
Jun 23, 2026 BOS @ COL 5 - 2
Jun 22, 2026 BOS @ COL 2 - 3
Jul 9, 2025 COL @ BOS 2 - 10
Jul 8, 2025 COL @ BOS 2 - 10
Season Statistics Comparison
Boston BOS
vs
Colorado COL
2
Games Played
▲ 162
1.00
Runs / Game
▲ 4.64
.117
Avg (AVG)
▲ .254
.159
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .322
.250
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .417
.409
OPS
▲ .739
2
Home Runs
▲ 180
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5) +19.2% more
Boston: 2.5 vs Colorado: 2.0
Home Runs (Season) +8900.0% more
Colorado: 180.0 vs Boston: 2.0
Runs per Game (Season) +364.0% more
Colorado: 4.6 vs Boston: 1.0
OPS (Season) +33.0%
Colorado: 73.9% vs Boston: 40.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BOS Score 4.8 2
COL Score 4.7 3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.6 / 0.3 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 7.9 / 6.6 12.0 / 5.0
Home Runs 1.5 / 1.1 0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 7.6 / 7.0 2.0 / 9.0
Total Bases 14.1 / 11.1 14.0 / 8.0
Walks 2.0 / 2.5 6.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
60%TICKETS40%
70%MONEY30%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
70%TICKETS30%
67%MONEY33%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
73%TICKETS27%
74%MONEY26%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BOS Advantage
87-77-0 (53.1%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
COL
58-104-0 (35.8%)
Margin: -1.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BOS
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
COL Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: -1.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
BOS
74-86-4
O: 46.3% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: 0.0
COL
77-80-5
O: 49.0% / U: 51.0% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
COL
BOS
COL
BOS
ML
60% 97-64
50% 80-80
55% 88-73
47% 76-87
ATS
60% 97-64
58% 93-67
52% 83-78
48% 79-84
TTL
60% 93-62-6
46% 72-83-5
50% 77-78-6
47% 74-83-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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