WASHINGTON
NATIONALSWSH
40-37 | Road
4
TAMPA BAY
RAYSTB
42-31 | Home
3
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Cade Cavalli
#24 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Cam Booser
#62 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cade Cavalli | None-None | 4.07 | -- | 2.2 | 1 |
| Cam Booser | None-None | 1.13 | -- | 1.0 | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
4.07
ERA
Ldr 1.13
--
WHIP
--
2.2 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
1 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
NATIONALS
50%
RAYS
50%
NATIONALS
--
RAYS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
50%
Under 0
50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
TAMPA BAY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Tampa Bay)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around TB -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TB)
WSH By 1-2 runs
16.3%
WSH By 3-4 runs
10.6%
TB By 1-2 runs
19.6%
TB By 3-4 runs
16.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Washington
3
WASHINGTON
Tampa Bay
4
TAMPA BAY
Simulated Score
Washington
6
WASHINGTON
Tampa Bay
4
TAMPA BAY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Rays
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Sim
Nationals
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Rays (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
A
Sim
Nationals (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u8.5
Win
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Sim
o8.5
Loss
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jun 21, 2026
WSH @ TB
3 - 4
Jun 20, 2026
WSH @ TB
4 - 3
Jun 19, 2026
WSH @ TB
2 - 5
Aug 31, 2025
TB @ WSH
7 - 4
Aug 30, 2025
TB @ WSH
4 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Washington
WSH
vs
Tampa Bay
TB
162
Games Played
162
5.07
▲
Runs / Game
4.54
.246
Avg (AVG)
▲
.258
.321
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.326
.423
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.402
.744
▲
OPS
.728
210
▲
Home Runs
169
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5)
+51.0% more
Tampa Bay: 7.6
vs
Washington: 5.0
Batting Avg (Season)
+1.2%
Tampa Bay: 25.8%
vs
Washington: 24.6%
On-Base Pct (Season)
+0.5%
Tampa Bay: 32.6%
vs
Washington: 32.1%
Home Runs (Season)
+19.5% more
Washington: 210.0
vs
Tampa Bay: 169.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
WSH Score
3.0
4
TB Score
4.0
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.4 / 0.4
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.1 / 7.7
10.0 / 10.0
Home Runs
1.0 / 1.2
0.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
7.6 / 5.0
8.0 / 10.0
Total Bases
12.0 / 13.0
11.0 / 18.0
Walks
2.6 / 2.6
0.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WSH
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
TB
Advantage
101-64-0
(61.2%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WSH
Advantage
(56.2%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
TB
(53.3%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
WSH
85-69-8
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8%
Total +/-: +1.3
TB
76-83-6
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TB
WSH
TB
WSH
ML
58%
95-68
57%
92-69
58%
95-68
54%
87-74
ATS
60%
97-66
58%
93-68
55%
90-73
57%
91-70
TTL
47%
73-81-9
50%
77-78-6
51%
78-75-10
42%
65-90-6
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