MILWAUKEE
BREWERSMIL
45-29 | Road
3
ATLANTA
BRAVESATL
48-27 | Home
4
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Aaron Ashby
#26 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Dylan Lee
#52 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Ashby | None-None | 3.18 | -- | 0.1 | 1 |
| Dylan Lee | None-None | 1.08 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
3.18
ERA
Ldr 1.08
--
WHIP
--
0.1
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 1.0
1
K (Strikeouts)
1
AI Model Win Probability
BREWERS
50%
BRAVES
50%
BREWERS
--
BRAVES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
47%
Under 0
53%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
ATLANTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Atlanta)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around ATL -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ATL)
MIL By 1-2 runs
16.3%
MIL By 3-4 runs
10.6%
ATL By 1-2 runs
19.6%
ATL By 3-4 runs
16.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Milwaukee
4
MILWAUKEE
Atlanta
5
ATLANTA
Simulated Score
Milwaukee
4
MILWAUKEE
Atlanta
5
ATLANTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Braves
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Sim
Braves
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Braves (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
A
Sim
Brewers (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: +1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o7.0
Push
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Sim
o7.0
Push
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 23, 2026
ATL @ MIL
4 - 2
Aug 22, 2026
ATL @ MIL
1 - 4
Aug 21, 2026
ATL @ MIL
1 - 2
Jun 21, 2026
MIL @ ATL
9 - 4
Jun 20, 2026
MIL @ ATL
3 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Milwaukee
MIL
vs
Atlanta
ATL
162
▲
Games Played
1
5.14
▲
Runs / Game
5.00
.258
▲
Avg (AVG)
.233
.341
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.324
.403
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.433
.743
OPS
▲
.757
154
▲
Home Runs
1
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5)
+8.6% more
Atlanta: 3.7
vs
Milwaukee: 3.4
Slugging Pct (Season)
+3.0%
Atlanta: 43.3%
vs
Milwaukee: 40.3%
OPS (Season)
+1.4%
Atlanta: 75.7%
vs
Milwaukee: 74.3%
Home Runs (Season)
+99.4% more
Milwaukee: 154.0
vs
Atlanta: 1.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIL Score
4.0
3
ATL Score
5.0
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.2 / 0.2
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.0 / 8.9
6.0 / 8.0
Home Runs
1.0 / 0.9
2.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
6.7 / 10.4
10.0 / 9.0
Total Bases
11.8 / 13.6
13.0 / 8.0
Walks
3.7 / 3.4
1.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIL
Advantage
106-60-0
(63.9%)
Margin: 1.3
ATS +/-:
ATL
97-72-0
(57.4%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIL
Advantage
(52.4%)
Margin: 1.3
ATS +/-:
ATL
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIL
73-88-5
O: 45.3% / U: 54.7%
Total +/-: +0.8
ATL
76-83-10
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATL
MIL
ATL
MIL
ML
46%
77-90
62%
101-61
54%
90-78
52%
84-78
ATS
57%
96-71
58%
94-68
52%
87-81
48%
78-84
TTL
53%
83-73-11
40%
62-92-8
49%
76-80-11
50%
77-77-8
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