CLEVELAND
GUARDIANSCLE
41-36 | Road
8
HOUSTON
ASTROSHOU
36-42 | Home
1
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Matt Festa
#52 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Bryan Abreu
#52 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Festa | None-None | 4.22 | -- | 1.0 | 2 |
| Bryan Abreu | None-None | 6.39 | -- | 1.0 | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
4.22 Ldr
ERA
6.39
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
2 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
GUARDIANS
32%
ASTROS
68%
GUARDIANS
--
ASTROS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
12.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
55%
Under 0
45%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.0
HOUSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.0 points (Houston)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around HOU -4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HOU)
CLE By 1-2 runs
7.8%
CLE By 3-4 runs
3.5%
HOU By 1-2 runs
16.3%
HOU By 3-4 runs
19.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Cleveland
4
CLEVELAND
Houston
8
HOUSTON
Simulated Score
Cleveland
6
CLEVELAND
Houston
3
HOUSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Astros
Loss
68% Win Prob
A
Sim
Guardians
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Astros (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -4.0
D
Sim
Guardians (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o8.5
Win
Proj Total: 12.0
C
Sim
o8.5
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jun 21, 2026
CLE @ HOU
1 - 2
Jun 20, 2026
CLE @ HOU
8 - 1
Jun 19, 2026
CLE @ HOU
3 - 9
Apr 22, 2026
HOU @ CLE
2 - 0
Apr 21, 2026
HOU @ CLE
5 - 8
Season Statistics Comparison
Cleveland
CLE
vs
Houston
HOU
162
▲
Games Played
2
4.19
▲
Runs / Game
3.00
.239
▲
Avg (AVG)
.169
.316
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.229
.380
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.354
.696
▲
OPS
.582
162
▲
Home Runs
4
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5)
+50.5% more
Houston: 9.5
vs
Cleveland: 6.3
Total Bases (L5)
+49.4% more
Houston: 17.9
vs
Cleveland: 12.0
Home Runs (L5)
+38.3% more
Houston: 1.8
vs
Cleveland: 1.3
Strikeouts (L5)
+14.8% more
Houston: 11.6
vs
Cleveland: 10.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CLE Score
4.0
8
HOU Score
8.0
1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.1 / 0.7
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
9.5 / 6.3
5.0 / 10.0
Home Runs
1.8 / 1.3
0.0 / 3.0
Strikeouts
11.6 / 10.1
11.0 / 11.0
Total Bases
17.9 / 12.0
5.0 / 19.0
Walks
1.5 / 4.1
0.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CLE
Advantage
87-79-0
(52.4%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
HOU
81-83-0
(49.4%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CLE
(50.6%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
HOU
Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CLE
81-84-1
O: 49.1% / U: 50.9%
Total +/-: +0.5
HOU
81-74-9
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
HOU
CLE
HOU
CLE
ML
50%
81-82
54%
87-75
47%
77-87
49%
80-83
ATS
56%
91-72
57%
93-69
55%
90-74
58%
95-68
TTL
45%
70-84-9
56%
89-71-2
45%
69-86-9
44%
70-90-2
Contextual Game News
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