SAN DIEGO
PADRESSD
39-36 | Road
6
TEXAS
RANGERSTEX
36-40 | Home
4
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Mason Miller
#22 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Jacob Latz
#67 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason Miller | None-None | 0.87 | -- | 1.0 | 2 |
| Jacob Latz | None-None | 1.51 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
0.87 Ldr
ERA
1.51
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
2 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
1
AI Model Win Probability
PADRES
50%
RANGERS
50%
PADRES
--
RANGERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
11.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
70%
Under 0
30%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
TEXAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Texas)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around TEX -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TEX)
SD By 1-2 runs
16.3%
SD By 3-4 runs
10.6%
TEX By 1-2 runs
19.6%
TEX By 3-4 runs
16.3%
AI Model Projected Score
San Diego
5
SAN DIEGO
Texas
6
TEXAS
Simulated Score
San Diego
3
SAN DIEGO
Texas
6
TEXAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Rangers
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Sim
Rangers
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Rangers (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
B
Sim
Rangers (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o7.5
Win
Proj Total: 11.0
A
Sim
o7.5
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jun 21, 2026
SD @ TEX
3 - 4
Jun 20, 2026
SD @ TEX
6 - 4
Jun 19, 2026
SD @ TEX
7 - 9
Jul 6, 2025
TEX @ SD
1 - 4
Jul 5, 2025
TEX @ SD
7 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
San Diego
SD
vs
Texas
TEX
2
Games Played
▲
162
6.00
▲
Runs / Game
4.15
.328
▲
Avg (AVG)
.242
.362
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.317
.563
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.396
.925
▲
OPS
.713
4
Home Runs
▲
183
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+4475.0% more
Texas: 183.0
vs
San Diego: 4.0
Strikeouts (L5)
+65.2% more
Texas: 8.6
vs
San Diego: 5.2
Hits (L5)
+18.7% more
Texas: 10.5
vs
San Diego: 8.9
Total Bases (L5)
+13.4% more
Texas: 17.1
vs
San Diego: 15.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SD Score
5.0
6
TEX Score
6.0
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.4 / 0.4
1.0 / 1.0
Hits
10.5 / 8.9
9.0 / 9.0
Home Runs
1.3 / 1.6
1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
8.6 / 5.2
9.0 / 17.0
Total Bases
17.1 / 15.1
14.0 / 15.0
Walks
2.8 / 4.0
4.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SD
Advantage
94-74-0
(56.0%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
TEX
80-82-0
(49.4%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SD
Advantage
(57.1%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
TEX
(48.2%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SD
78-85-5
O: 47.9% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.2
TEX
84-69-9
O: 54.9% / U: 45.1%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TEX
SD
TEX
SD
ML
53%
86-76
51%
85-83
57%
91-70
51%
85-82
ATS
57%
92-70
54%
91-77
61%
98-63
55%
92-75
TTL
53%
78-70-14
51%
82-80-6
55%
81-66-14
54%
86-74-6
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