Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Ohio @ Nebraska OHIO @ NEB

OHIO

OHIOOHIO

0-1  |  Road

21
FINAL
Sat, Sep 5 • 12:00 PM ET
Memorial Stadium (Lincoln, NE)
View Odds Details →

NEBRASKA

NEBRASKANEB

1-0  |  Home

49
Key Game
Magnus Haines
KEY GAME

Magnus Haines

#42 | Punter
@
Kyle Cunanan
KEY GAME

Kyle Cunanan

#91 | Place kicker
Player
Magnus Haines None-None
Kyle Cunanan None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
OHIO
13%
📊
NEBRASKA
87%
▲ Edge: +5.40% (OHIO)
OHIO 8% Book Odds: +1159
NEBRASKA 96% Book Odds: -2354
Book Implied: 7.90% / 95.90%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
57.5
Projected
Book Total
46.0
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +11.5 (Over)
Over 46.0 74%
Under 46.0 26%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+19.5
OHIO
Book Spread
+23.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.0 points (Ohio)
OhioOHIO (+23.5) 0 NebraskaNEB (-23.5)
Ohio Bobcats (+23.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Ohio Cover

91.8%

Nebraska Cover

8.2%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around OHIO +19.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (OHIO)

OHIO By 1-6 points

4.5%

OHIO By 7-13 points

2.2%

NEB By 1-6 points

8.9%

NEB By 7-13 points

15.8%

AI Model Projected Score
19
OHIO
Book Implied: 11.20
38.5
NEBRASKA
Book Implied: 34.80
Simulated Score
27
OHIO
Book Implied: 11.20
31
NEBRASKA
Book Implied: 34.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Nebraska Win
87% Win Prob
C
Sim Nebraska Win
65% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Ohio (+23.5) Loss
Proj Spread: +19.5
C
Sim Ohio (+23.5) Loss
Proj Spread: +4.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI o46.0 Win
Proj Total: 57.5
A
Sim o46.0 Win
Proj Total: 58.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 5, 2026 OHIO @ NEB 21 - 49
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +64.1% more
Ohio: 2.2 vs Nebraska: 0.8
Rushing Yards (L5) +34.5% more
Ohio: 262.2 vs Nebraska: 171.6
Total Yards (L5) +20.5% more
Ohio: 398.9 vs Nebraska: 317.3
First Downs (L5) +17.6% more
Ohio: 20.8 vs Nebraska: 17.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
OHIO Score 19.0 21
NEB Score 38.5 49
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 17.1 / 20.8 28.0 / 17.0
Rushing Yards 171.6 / 262.2 248.0 / 139.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.64 / 0.4
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.6 0.51 / 0.49
Total Yards 317.3 / 398.9 523.0 / 303.0
Turnovers 0.8 / 2.2 0.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +1114 / -2533 → +1159 / -2354
2%TICKETS98%
12%MONEY88%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +24 / -24 → +23.5 / -23.5 ↓
73%TICKETS27%
29%MONEY71%
Total (O/U)
Open: 47.5 → 46 ↓
38%TICKETS62%
39%MONEY61%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
OHIO
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-: -1.4
NEB Advantage
5-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 29.4 ATS +/-: +8.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
OHIO
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-: -1.4
NEB Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 29.4 ATS +/-: +8.8
⚖️ Over/Under
OHIO
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +3.7
NEB
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +6.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NEB
OHIO
NEB
OHIO
ML
100% 5-0
75% 3-1
80% 4-1
100% 5-0
ATS
20% 1-4
25% 1-3
40% 2-3
20% 1-4
TTL
60% 3-2
50% 2-2
60% 3-2
100% 5-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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