Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Idaho St @ Utah State IDST @ USU

IDAHO STATE

IDAHO STIDST

2-0  |  Road

29
FINAL
Sat, Sep 5 • 7:00 PM ET
Maverik Stadium
View Odds Details →

UTAH STATE

UTAH STATEUSU

0-1  |  Home

17
Key Game
👤
KEY GAME

Jordan Rucker

#35 | Punter
@
Kian Afrookhteh
KEY GAME

Kian Afrookhteh

#19 | Place kicker
Player
Jordan Rucker None-None
Kian Afrookhteh None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
IDAHO ST
26%
📊
UTAH STATE
74%
▲ Edge: +8.10% (IDST)
IDAHO ST 18% Book Odds: +449
UTAH STATE 88% Book Odds: -747
Book Implied: 18.20% / 88.20%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
62.8
Projected
Book Total
60.0
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +2.8 (Over)
Over 60.0 65%
Under 60.0 35%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+11.8
IDAHO STATE
Book Spread
+14.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.7 points (Idaho State)
Idaho StIDST (+14.5) 0 Utah StateUSU (-14.5)
Idaho State Bengals (+14.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Idaho St Cover

80.0%

Utah State Cover

20.0%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around IDST +11.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (IDST)

IDST By 1-6 points

9.4%

IDST By 7-13 points

6.0%

USU By 1-6 points

14.3%

USU By 7-13 points

19.6%

AI Model Projected Score
25.5
IDAHO STATE
Book Implied: 22.80
37.3
UTAH STATE
Book Implied: 37.20
Simulated Score
26
IDAHO STATE
Book Implied: 22.80
37
UTAH STATE
Book Implied: 37.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Utah State Loss
74% Win Prob
C
Sim Utah State Loss
86% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Idaho St (+14.5) Win
Proj Spread: +11.8
A
Sim Idaho St (+14.5) Win
Proj Spread: +11.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI o60.0 Loss
Proj Total: 62.8
B
Sim o60.0 Loss
Proj Total: 63.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 5, 2026 IDST @ USU 29 - 17
Sep 9, 2023 IDST @ USU 28 - 78
Sep 7, 2017 IDST @ USU 13 - 51
Sep 6, 2014 IDST @ USU 20 - 40
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +36.4% more
Utah State: 151.4 vs Idaho State: 111.0
Turnovers (L5) +54.4% more
Idaho State: 2.2 vs Utah State: 1.0
First Downs (L5) +15.5% more
Idaho State: 23.1 vs Utah State: 19.5
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +15.0% more
Idaho State: 0.5 vs Utah State: 0.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
IDST Score 25.5 29
USU Score 37.3 17
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 19.5 / 23.1 29.0 / 14.0
Rushing Yards 151.4 / 111.0 162.0 / 89.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.5 0.6 / 0.33
Time of Possession 0.4 / 0.5 0.56 / 0.44
Total Yards 365.6 / 400.7 407.0 / 241.0
Turnovers 1.0 / 2.2 4.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +388 / -641 → +449 / -747 ↑
2%TICKETS98%
4%MONEY96%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +14 / -14 → +14.5 / -14.5 ↑
18%TICKETS82%
27%MONEY73%
Total (O/U)
Open: 62.5 → 60 ↓
2%TICKETS98%
3%MONEY97%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
IDST
--
USU Advantage
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -11.0 ATS +/-: +0.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
IDST
--
USU Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: -11.0 ATS +/-: +0.1
⚖️ Over/Under
IDST
--
USU
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: -14.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
USU
IDST
USU
IDST
ML
60% 3-2
50% 1-1
80% 4-1
50% 1-1
ATS
60% 3-2
100% 2-0
80% 4-1
100% 2-0
TTL
20% 1-4
0% 0-2
20% 1-4
0% 0-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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