Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Duquesne @ Air Force DUQ @ AFA

DUQUESNE

DUQUESNEDUQ

0-1  |  Road

0
FINAL
Sat, Sep 5 • 1:00 PM ET
Falcon Stadium
View Odds Details →

AIR FORCE

AIR FORCEAFA

1-0  |  Home

34
Key Game
👤
KEY GAME

Justin Willis

#96 | Punter
@
Will Duncan
KEY GAME

Will Duncan

#94 | Punter
Player
Justin Willis None-None
Will Duncan None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
DUQUESNE
4%
📊
AIR FORCE
96%
DUQUESNE --
AIR FORCE --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
52.5
Projected
Book Total
57.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +5.0 (Under)
Over 57.5 45%
Under 57.5 55%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-32.1
AIR FORCE
Book Spread
-28.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.6 points (Air Force)
DuquesneDUQ (+28.5) 0 Air ForceAFA (-28.5)
Air Force Falcons (-28.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Duquesne Cover

1.1%

Air Force Cover

98.9%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around AFA -32.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (AFA)

DUQ By 1-6 points

0.7%

DUQ By 7-13 points

0.2%

AFA By 1-6 points

2.2%

AFA By 7-13 points

5.8%

AI Model Projected Score
10.2
DUQUESNE
Book Implied: 14.50
42.3
AIR FORCE
Book Implied: 43
Simulated Score
10
DUQUESNE
Book Implied: 14.50
42
AIR FORCE
Book Implied: 43
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Air Force Win
96% Win Prob
A
Sim Air Force Win
100% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Air Force (-28.5) Win
Proj Spread: -32.1
D
Sim Air Force (-28.5) Win
Proj Spread: -32.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI u57.5 Win
Proj Total: 52.5
D
Sim u57.5 Win
Proj Total: 52.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 5, 2026 DUQ @ AFA 0 - 34
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +127.6% more
Air Force: 250.9 vs Duquesne: 110.3
First Downs (L5) +75.9% more
Air Force: 20.5 vs Duquesne: 11.6
Total Yards (L5) +49.1% more
Air Force: 340.8 vs Duquesne: 228.6
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +28.0% more
Air Force: 0.5 vs Duquesne: 0.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DUQ Score 10.2 0
AFA Score 42.3 34
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 20.5 / 11.6 28.0 / 8.0
Rushing Yards 250.9 / 110.3 431.0 / 54.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.3 0.6 / 0.27
Time of Possession 0.6 / 0.5 0.68 / 0.32
Total Yards 340.8 / 228.6 450.0 / 107.0
Turnovers 0.7 / 2.1 0.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: 0 / 0 → -- / --
2%TICKETS98%
30%MONEY70%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +28.5 / -28.5 → +28.5 / -28.5
90%TICKETS10%
7%MONEY93%
Total (O/U)
Open: 57.5 → 57.5
32%TICKETS68%
16%MONEY84%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DUQ
--
AFA Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 9.0 ATS +/-: -0.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DUQ
--
AFA Advantage
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 9.0 ATS +/-: -0.5
⚖️ Over/Under
DUQ
--
AFA
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
AFA
DUQ
AFA
DUQ
ML
33% 1-2
100% 2-0
100% 4-0
100% 2-0
ATS
67% 2-1
50% 1-1
100% 4-0
50% 1-1
TTL
67% 2-1
100% 2-0
50% 2-2
50% 1-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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