Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Western KY @ Nevada WKU @ NEV

WESTERN KENTUCKY

WESTERN KYWKU

0-1  |  Road

14
FINAL
Sat, Sep 5 • 10:30 PM ET
Mackay Stadium
View Odds Details →

NEVADA

NEVADANEV

1-0  |  Home

49
Key Game
Jackson Smith
KEY GAME

Jackson Smith

#43 | Place kicker
@
Ewan Baulch
KEY GAME

Ewan Baulch

#95 | Punter
Player
Jackson Smith None-None
Ewan Baulch None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
WESTERN KY
69%
📊
NEVADA
31%
▲ Edge: +18% (WKU)
WESTERN KY 51% Book Odds: -103
NEVADA 52% Book Odds: -109
Book Implied: 50.70% / 52.20%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
47.5
Projected
Book Total
52.0
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +4.5 (Under)
Over 52.0 44%
Under 52.0 56%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-8.5
WESTERN KENTUCKY
Book Spread
+1
Book Line
▲ Edge: +9.5 points (Western Kentucky)
Western KYWKU (+1) 0 NevadaNEV (-1)
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (+1) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Western KY Cover

72.8%

Nevada Cover

27.2%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around WKU -8.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WKU)

WKU By 1-6 points

15.9%

WKU By 7-13 points

19.6%

NEV By 1-6 points

11.8%

NEV By 7-13 points

8.4%

AI Model Projected Score
28
WESTERN KENTUCKY
Book Implied: 25.50
19.5
NEVADA
Book Implied: 26.50
Simulated Score
24
WESTERN KENTUCKY
Book Implied: 25.50
22
NEVADA
Book Implied: 26.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Western KY Loss
69% Win Prob
C
Sim Western KY Loss
59% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Western KY (+1) Loss
Proj Spread: -8.5
A
Sim Western KY (+1) Loss
Proj Spread: -2.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI u52.0 Loss
Proj Total: 47.5
C
Sim u52.0 Loss
Proj Total: 46.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 5, 2026 WKU @ NEV 14 - 49
Sep 20, 2025 NEV @ WKU 16 - 31
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +19.8% more
Western Kentucky: 2.2 vs Nevada: 1.7
Total Yards (L5) +19.4% more
Western Kentucky: 388.1 vs Nevada: 312.9
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +16.0% more
Western Kentucky: 0.5 vs Nevada: 0.3
Rushing Yards (L5) +16.8% more
Nevada: 176.3 vs Western Kentucky: 150.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
WKU Score 28.0 14
NEV Score 19.5 49
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 19.1 / 19.8 20.0 / 23.0
Rushing Yards 176.3 / 150.9 323.0 / 164.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.5 0.5 / 0.35
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.46 / 0.54
Total Yards 312.9 / 388.1 486.0 / 367.0
Turnovers 1.7 / 2.2 1.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -133 / +114 → -103 / -109 ↑
85%TICKETS15%
39%MONEY61%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -2.5 / +2.5 → +1 / -1 ↑
74%TICKETS26%
58%MONEY42%
Total (O/U)
Open: 53 → 52 ↓
13%TICKETS87%
20%MONEY80%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WKU
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -19.8 ATS +/-: -10.6
NEV Advantage
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: 3.0 ATS +/-: +5.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WKU
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -19.8 ATS +/-: -10.6
NEV Advantage
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 3.0 ATS +/-: +5.0
⚖️ Over/Under
WKU
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +3.5
NEV
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NEV
WKU
NEV
WKU
ML
25% 1-3
60% 3-2
75% 3-1
80% 4-1
ATS
50% 2-2
20% 1-4
50% 2-2
40% 2-3
TTL
25% 1-3
40% 2-3
75% 3-1
40% 2-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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