Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / N'Western St @ Louisiana Tech NWST @ LT

NORTHWESTERN STATE

N'WESTERN STNWST

0-2  |  Road

6
FINAL
Sat, Sep 5 • 7:30 PM ET
Joe Aillet Stadium
View Odds Details →

LOUISIANA TECH

LOUISIANA TECHLT

1-0  |  Home

80
Key Game
👤
KEY GAME

Jack Hurley

#20 | Punter
@
Lexington Matthews
KEY GAME

Lexington Matthews

#29 | Punter
Player
Jack Hurley None-None
Lexington Matthews None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
N'WESTERN ST
3%
📊
LOUISIANA TECH
97%
N'WESTERN ST --
LOUISIANA TECH --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
53.0
Projected
Book Total
66.5
Over / Under Line
▼ Edge: +13.5 (Under)
Over 66.5 23%
Under 66.5 77%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+32.6
NORTHWESTERN STATE
Book Spread
+49.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +16.9 points (Northwestern State)
N'Western StNWST (+49.5) 0 Louisiana TechLT (-49.5)
Northwestern State Demons (+49.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

N'Western St Cover

99.0%

Louisiana Tech Cover

1.0%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around NWST +32.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NWST)

NWST By 1-6 points

0.6%

NWST By 7-13 points

0.2%

LT By 1-6 points

2.0%

LT By 7-13 points

5.5%

AI Model Projected Score
10.2
NORTHWESTERN STATE
Book Implied: 8.50
42.8
LOUISIANA TECH
Book Implied: 58
Simulated Score
10
NORTHWESTERN STATE
Book Implied: 8.50
43
LOUISIANA TECH
Book Implied: 58
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Louisiana Tech Win
97% Win Prob
A
Sim Louisiana Tech Win
100% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI N'Western St (+49.5) Loss
Proj Spread: +32.6
B
Sim N'Western St (+49.5) Loss
Proj Spread: +33.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI u66.5 Loss
Proj Total: 53.0
A
Sim u66.5 Loss
Proj Total: 53.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 5, 2026 NWST @ LT 6 - 80
Sep 9, 2023 NWST @ LT 21 - 51
Sep 2, 2017 NWST @ LT 24 - 52
Sep 20, 2014 NWST @ LT 30 - 27
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +280.7% more
Louisiana Tech: 273.8 vs Northwestern State: 71.9
First Downs (L5) +169.3% more
Louisiana Tech: 20.8 vs Northwestern State: 7.7
Total Yards (L5) +158.3% more
Louisiana Tech: 402.5 vs Northwestern State: 155.8
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +36.0% more
Louisiana Tech: 0.5 vs Northwestern State: 0.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NWST Score 10.2 6
LT Score 42.8 80
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 20.8 / 7.7 23.0 / 7.0
Rushing Yards 273.8 / 71.9 232.0 / 86.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.2 0.64 / 0.22
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.41 / 0.59
Total Yards 402.5 / 155.8 528.0 / 129.0
Turnovers 1.9 / 2.2 0.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- / -- → -- / --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: +44.5 / -44.5 → +49.5 / -49.5 ↑
99%TICKETS1%
88%MONEY12%
Total (O/U)
Open: 55.5 → 66.5 ↑
56%TICKETS44%
87%MONEY13%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NWST
--
LT Advantage
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 7.0 ATS +/-: +9.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NWST
--
LT Advantage
4-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 7.0 ATS +/-: +9.1
⚖️ Over/Under
NWST
--
LT
4-0-0
O: 100.0% / U: 0.0% Total +/-: +13.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LT
NWST
LT
NWST
ML
100% 4-0
100% 1-0
50% 2-2
100% 1-0
ATS
75% 3-1
0% 0-1
50% 2-2
0% 0-1
TTL
50% 2-2
0% 0-1
50% 2-2
0% 0-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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