Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Lafayette @ UConn LAF @ CONN

LAFAYETTE

LAFAYETTELAF

0-1  |  Road

7
FINAL
Sat, Sep 5 • 12:00 PM ET
Pratt & Whitney Stadium
View Odds Details →

UCONN

UCONNCONN

1-0  |  Home

56
Key Game
Jack Simonetta
KEY GAME

Jack Simonetta

#17 | Place kicker
@
👤
KEY GAME

Tommy Warner

#49 | Punter
Player
Jack Simonetta None-None
Tommy Warner None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
LAFAYETTE
5%
📊
UCONN
95%
LAFAYETTE --
UCONN --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
53.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 43%
Under 0 57%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-29.2
UCONN
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +29.2 points (UConn)
LafayetteLAF (-3.5) 0 UConnCONN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Lafayette Cover

1.9%

UConn Cover

98.1%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around CONN -29.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CONN)

LAF By 1-6 points

1.2%

LAF By 7-13 points

0.4%

CONN By 1-6 points

3.2%

CONN By 7-13 points

7.9%

AI Model Projected Score
12.1
LAFAYETTE
41.3
UCONN
Simulated Score
12
LAFAYETTE
41
UCONN
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI UConn Win
95% Win Prob
A
Sim UConn Win
100% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI UConn (-19.5) Win
Proj Spread: -29.2
C
Sim UConn (-19.5) Win
Proj Spread: -29.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u58.5 Loss
Proj Total: 53.4
C
Sim o58.5 Win
Proj Total: 53.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 5, 2026 LAF @ CONN 7 - 56
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +142.1% more
UConn: 163.7 vs Lafayette: 67.6
Total Yards (L5) +83.2% more
UConn: 404.1 vs Lafayette: 220.6
First Downs (L5) +53.7% more
UConn: 20.6 vs Lafayette: 13.4
Turnovers (L5) +82.0% more
Lafayette: 1.0 vs UConn: 0.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LAF Score 12.1 7
CONN Score 41.3 56
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 20.6 / 13.4 29.0 / 19.0
Rushing Yards 163.7 / 67.6 301.0 / 64.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.3 0.5 / 0.33
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.53 / 0.47
Total Yards 404.1 / 220.6 671.0 / 209.0
Turnovers 0.2 / 1.0 2.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
3%TICKETS97%
14%MONEY86%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
46%TICKETS54%
5%MONEY95%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
26%TICKETS74%
27%MONEY73%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LAF
--
CONN Advantage
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 9.8 ATS +/-: +9.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LAF
--
CONN Advantage
3-1-1 (75.0%)
Margin: 9.8 ATS +/-: +9.0
⚖️ Over/Under
LAF
--
CONN
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +9.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CONN
LAF
CONN
LAF
ML
60% 3-2
100% 1-0
20% 1-4
100% 1-0
ATS
40% 2-3
100% 1-0
40% 2-3
100% 1-0
TTL
40% 2-3
0% 0-1
60% 3-2
100% 1-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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