Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / North Texas @ Indiana UNT @ IU

NORTH TEXAS

NORTH TEXASUNT

0-1  |  Road

16
FINAL
Sat, Sep 5 • 12:00 PM ET
Memorial Stadium (Bloomington, IN)
View Odds Details →

INDIANA

INDIANAIU

1-0  |  Home

52
Key Game
Ian Ratliff
KEY GAME

Ian Ratliff

#37 | Punter
@
Billy Gowers
KEY GAME

Billy Gowers

#19 | Punter
Player
Ian Ratliff None-None
Billy Gowers None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
NORTH TEXAS
6%
📊
INDIANA
94%
NORTH TEXAS --
INDIANA --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
66.5
Projected
Book Total
56.0
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +10.5 (Over)
Over 56.0 73%
Under 56.0 27%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+29.5
NORTH TEXAS
Book Spread
+40.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +11.0 points (North Texas)
North TexasUNT (+40.5) 0 IndianaIU (-40.5)
North Texas Mean Green (+40.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

North Texas Cover

98.2%

Indiana Cover

1.8%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around UNT +29.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UNT)

UNT By 1-6 points

1.1%

UNT By 7-13 points

0.4%

IU By 1-6 points

3.1%

IU By 7-13 points

7.6%

AI Model Projected Score
18.5
NORTH TEXAS
Book Implied: 7.80
48
INDIANA
Book Implied: 48.20
Simulated Score
32
NORTH TEXAS
Book Implied: 7.80
34
INDIANA
Book Implied: 48.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Indiana Win
94% Win Prob
B
Sim Indiana Win
57% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI North Texas (+40.5) Win
Proj Spread: +29.5
B
Sim North Texas (+40.5) Win
Proj Spread: +2.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI o56.0 Win
Proj Total: 66.5
A
Sim o56.0 Win
Proj Total: 66.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 5, 2026 UNT @ IU 16 - 52
Oct 4, 2014 UNT @ IU 24 - 49
Key Model Drivers
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +8.0% more
Indiana: 0.5 vs North Texas: 0.4
Turnovers (L5) +91.4% more
North Texas: 2.2 vs Indiana: 0.2
Total Yards (L5) +23.6% more
North Texas: 553.7 vs Indiana: 423.0
First Downs (L5) +21.5% more
North Texas: 26.1 vs Indiana: 20.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UNT Score 18.5 16
IU Score 48.0 52
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 20.5 / 26.1 18.0 / 19.0
Rushing Yards 191.3 / 239.7 134.0 / 152.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.4 0.56 / 0.4
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.38 / 0.62
Total Yards 423.0 / 553.7 365.0 / 367.0
Turnovers 0.2 / 2.2 0.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- / 0 → -- / --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: +41 / -41 → +40.5 / -40.5 ↓
95%TICKETS5%
78%MONEY22%
Total (O/U)
Open: 55.5 → 56 ↑
20%TICKETS80%
69%MONEY31%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UNT
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 7.6 ATS +/-: +8.4
IU Advantage
5-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 33.4 ATS +/-: -3.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UNT Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 7.6 ATS +/-: +8.4
IU
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: 33.4 ATS +/-: -3.8
⚖️ Over/Under
UNT
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +14.5
IU
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: -2.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
IU
UNT
IU
UNT
ML
100% 5-0
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
ATS
60% 3-2
40% 2-3
80% 4-1
40% 2-3
TTL
60% 3-2
40% 2-3
100% 5-0
60% 3-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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