Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Wisconsin @ Notre Dame WIS @ ND

WISCONSIN

WISCONSINWIS

0-1  |  Road

13
FINAL
Sun, Sep 6 • 7:30 PM ET
Lambeau Field
View Odds Details →

NOTRE DAME

NOTRE DAMEND

1-0  |  Home

41
Key Game
Gavin Lahm
KEY GAME

Gavin Lahm

#97 | Place kicker
@
Jasper Scaife
KEY GAME

Jasper Scaife

#39 | Punter
Player
Gavin Lahm None-None
Jasper Scaife None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
WISCONSIN
35%
📊
NOTRE DAME
65%
▲ Edge: +25.20% (WIS)
WISCONSIN 10% Book Odds: +922
NOTRE DAME 94% Book Odds: -1510
Book Implied: 9.80% / 93.80%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
47.0
Projected
Book Total
46.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 (Over)
Over 46.5 51%
Under 46.5 49%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+6.6
WISCONSIN
Book Spread
+21
Book Line
▲ Edge: +14.4 points (Wisconsin)
WisconsinWIS (+21) 0 Notre DameND (-21)
Wisconsin Badgers (+21) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Wisconsin Cover

68.1%

Notre Dame Cover

31.9%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around WIS +6.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WIS)

WIS By 1-6 points

13.1%

WIS By 7-13 points

9.9%

ND By 1-6 points

16.6%

ND By 7-13 points

19.2%

AI Model Projected Score
20.2
WISCONSIN
Book Implied: 12.80
26.8
NOTRE DAME
Book Implied: 33.80
Simulated Score
10
WISCONSIN
Book Implied: 12.80
41
NOTRE DAME
Book Implied: 33.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Notre Dame Win
65% Win Prob
D
Sim Notre Dame Win
100% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Wisconsin (+21) Loss
Proj Spread: +6.6
B
Sim Notre Dame (-21) Win
Proj Spread: -31.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI o46.5 Win
Proj Total: 47.0
B
Sim o46.5 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 6, 2026 WIS @ ND 13 - 41
Sep 25, 2021 ND @ WIS 41 - 13
Key Model Drivers
Total Yards (L5) +89.2% more
Notre Dame: 460.3 vs Wisconsin: 243.3
First Downs (L5) +85.8% more
Notre Dame: 21.5 vs Wisconsin: 11.6
Rushing Yards (L5) +85.3% more
Notre Dame: 225.1 vs Wisconsin: 121.5
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +22.0% more
Notre Dame: 0.5 vs Wisconsin: 0.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
WIS Score 20.2 13
ND Score 26.8 41
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 21.5 / 11.6 20.0 / 16.0
Rushing Yards 225.1 / 121.5 111.0 / 67.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.3 0.33 / 0.38
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.53 / 0.47
Total Yards 460.3 / 243.3 350.0 / 284.0
Turnovers 0.5 / 1.6 0.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +766 / -1411 → +922 / -1510
5%TICKETS95%
17%MONEY83%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +20.5 / -20.5 → +21 / -21 ↑
29%TICKETS71%
25%MONEY75%
Total (O/U)
Open: 48 → 46.5 ↓
93%TICKETS7%
86%MONEY14%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WIS
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 15.0 ATS +/-: +6.2
ND Advantage
5-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 29.4 ATS +/-: +0.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WIS
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 15.0 ATS +/-: +6.2
ND
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 29.4 ATS +/-: +0.9
⚖️ Over/Under
WIS
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +2.3
ND
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +2.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ND
WIS
ND
WIS
ML
100% 5-0
80% 4-1
100% 5-0
40% 2-3
ATS
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
60% 3-2
40% 2-3
TTL
40% 2-3
60% 3-2
40% 2-3
80% 4-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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