Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Ball State @ Ohio State BALL @ OSU

BALL STATE

BALL STATEBALL

0-1  |  Road

3
FINAL
Sat, Sep 5 • 12:30 PM ET
Ohio Stadium
View Odds Details →

OHIO STATE

OHIO STATEOSU

1-0  |  Home

56
Key Game
Cole Stumbaugh
KEY GAME

Cole Stumbaugh

#32 | Punter
@
Joe McGuire
KEY GAME

Joe McGuire

#42 | Punter
Player
Cole Stumbaugh None-None
Joe McGuire None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
BALL STATE
3%
📊
OHIO STATE
97%
BALL STATE --
OHIO STATE --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
59.0
Projected
Book Total
56.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +2.5 (Over)
Over 56.5 59%
Under 56.5 41%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+35.4
BALL STATE
Book Spread
+51
Book Line
▲ Edge: +15.6 points (Ball State)
Ball StateBALL (+51) 0 Ohio StateOSU (-51)
Ball State Cardinals (+51) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Ball State Cover

99.4%

Ohio State Cover

0.6%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around BALL +35.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BALL)

BALL By 1-6 points

0.4%

BALL By 7-13 points

0.1%

OSU By 1-6 points

1.3%

OSU By 7-13 points

3.9%

AI Model Projected Score
11.8
BALL STATE
Book Implied: 2.80
47.2
OHIO STATE
Book Implied: 53.80
Simulated Score
12
BALL STATE
Book Implied: 2.80
43
OHIO STATE
Book Implied: 53.80
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Ohio State Win
97% Win Prob
A
Sim Ohio State Win
100% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Ball State (+51) Loss
Proj Spread: +35.4
B
Sim Ball State (+51) Loss
Proj Spread: +31.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI o56.5 Win
Proj Total: 59.0
C
Sim u56.5 Loss
Proj Total: 55.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 5, 2026 BALL @ OSU 3 - 56
Key Model Drivers
First Downs (L5) +43.5% more
Ohio State: 21.9 vs Ball State: 15.2
Total Yards (L5) +41.1% more
Ohio State: 397.2 vs Ball State: 281.5
Rushing Yards (L5) +28.1% more
Ohio State: 149.9 vs Ball State: 117.1
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +14.0% more
Ohio State: 0.5 vs Ball State: 0.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BALL Score 11.8 3
OSU Score 47.2 56
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 21.9 / 15.2 32.0 / 13.0
Rushing Yards 149.9 / 117.1 237.0 / 45.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.4 0.45 / 0.21
Time of Possession 0.6 / 0.5 0.53 / 0.47
Total Yards 397.2 / 281.5 671.0 / 165.0
Turnovers 1.2 / 1.5 1.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- / -- → -- / --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: +51 / -51 → +51 / -51
96%TICKETS4%
88%MONEY12%
Total (O/U)
Open: 56.5 → 56.5
23%TICKETS77%
36%MONEY64%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BALL
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -18.6 ATS +/-: -3.7
OSU Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 29.6 ATS +/-: +1.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BALL
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -18.6 ATS +/-: -3.7
OSU Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 29.6 ATS +/-: +1.7
⚖️ Over/Under
BALL
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +4.5
OSU
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +1.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
OSU
BALL
OSU
BALL
ML
80% 4-1
100% 5-0
100% 5-0
100% 5-0
ATS
40% 2-3
60% 3-2
20% 1-4
40% 2-3
TTL
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
20% 1-4
60% 3-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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