Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Oregon St @ Houston ORST @ HOU

OREGON STATE

OREGON STORST

0-1  |  Road

20
FINAL
Sat, Sep 5 • 12:00 PM ET
TDECU Stadium
View Odds Details →

HOUSTON

HOUSTONHOU

1-0  |  Home

33
Key Game
Caleb Ojeda
KEY GAME

Caleb Ojeda

#28 | Place kicker
@
Liam Dougherty
KEY GAME

Liam Dougherty

#91 | Punter
Player
Caleb Ojeda None-None
Liam Dougherty None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
OREGON ST
13%
📊
HOUSTON
87%
▲ Edge: +1.50% (ORST)
OREGON ST 11% Book Odds: +796
HOUSTON 93% Book Odds: -1355
Book Implied: 11.20% / 93.10%
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
54.0
Projected
Book Total
50.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +3.5 (Over)
Over 50.5 59%
Under 50.5 41%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+20.0
OREGON STATE
Book Spread
+20.5
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 points (Oregon State)
Oregon StORST (+20.5) 0 HoustonHOU (-20.5)
Oregon State Beavers (+20.5) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Oregon St Cover

92.3%

Houston Cover

7.7%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around ORST +20.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ORST)

ORST By 1-6 points

4.2%

ORST By 7-13 points

2.1%

HOU By 1-6 points

8.6%

HOU By 7-13 points

15.4%

AI Model Projected Score
17
OREGON STATE
Book Implied: 15
37
HOUSTON
Book Implied: 35.50
Simulated Score
17
OREGON STATE
Book Implied: 15
35
HOUSTON
Book Implied: 35.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Houston Win
87% Win Prob
C
Sim Houston Win
96% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Oregon St (+20.5) Win
Proj Spread: +20.0
D
Sim Oregon St (+20.5) Win
Proj Spread: +18.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o50.5 Win
Proj Total: 54.0
C
Sim o50.5 Win
Proj Total: 52.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 5, 2026 ORST @ HOU 20 - 33
Sep 26, 2025 HOU @ ORST 27 - 24
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +83.2% more
Houston: 198.4 vs Oregon State: 108.3
First Downs (L5) +37.6% more
Houston: 26.7 vs Oregon State: 19.4
Total Yards (L5) +25.8% more
Houston: 416.1 vs Oregon State: 330.7
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +10.0% more
Houston: 0.4 vs Oregon State: 0.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ORST Score 17.0 20
HOU Score 37.0 33
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 26.7 / 19.4 24.0 / 20.0
Rushing Yards 198.4 / 108.3 228.0 / 26.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.3 0.54 / 0.27
Time of Possession 0.6 / 0.5 0.51 / 0.49
Total Yards 416.1 / 330.7 533.0 / 402.0
Turnovers 1.1 / 1.8 2.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +736 / -1327 → +796 / -1355
5%TICKETS95%
24%MONEY76%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +19.5 / -19.5 → +20.5 / -20.5 ↑
57%TICKETS43%
49%MONEY51%
Total (O/U)
Open: 51 → 50.5 ↓
31%TICKETS69%
63%MONEY37%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ORST
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 13.4 ATS +/-: +15.7
HOU Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 21.2 ATS +/-: +2.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ORST Advantage
5-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 13.4 ATS +/-: +15.7
HOU
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 21.2 ATS +/-: +2.7
⚖️ Over/Under
ORST
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +5.1
HOU
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +6.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
HOU
ORST
HOU
ORST
ML
100% 5-0
100% 4-0
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
ATS
40% 2-3
75% 3-1
60% 3-2
60% 3-2
TTL
60% 3-2
50% 2-2
80% 4-1
40% 2-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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