Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / East Carolina @ Alabama ECU @ ALA

EAST CAROLINA

EAST CAROLINAECU

0-1  |  Road

10
FINAL
Sat, Sep 5 • 12:00 PM ET
Bryant-Denny Stadium
View Odds Details →

ALABAMA

ALABAMAALA

1-0  |  Home

48
Key Game
Noah Perez
KEY GAME

Noah Perez

#43 | Place kicker
@
Alex Asparuhov
KEY GAME

Alex Asparuhov

#32 | Punter
Player
Noah Perez None-None
Alex Asparuhov None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
EAST CAROLINA
8%
📊
ALABAMA
92%
EAST CAROLINA --
ALABAMA --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
58.4
Projected
Book Total
52.5
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +5.9 (Over)
Over 52.5 64%
Under 52.5 36%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+26.0
EAST CAROLINA
Book Spread
+28
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (East Carolina)
East CarolinaECU (+28) 0 AlabamaALA (-28)
East Carolina Pirates (+28) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

East Carolina Cover

96.8%

Alabama Cover

3.2%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around ECU +26.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ECU)

ECU By 1-6 points

1.9%

ECU By 7-13 points

0.8%

ALA By 1-6 points

4.8%

ALA By 7-13 points

10.4%

AI Model Projected Score
16.2
EAST CAROLINA
Book Implied: 12.20
42.2
ALABAMA
Book Implied: 40.20
Simulated Score
29
EAST CAROLINA
Book Implied: 12.20
27
ALABAMA
Book Implied: 40.20
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Alabama Win
92% Win Prob
B
Sim East Carolina Loss
59% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI East Carolina (+28) Loss
Proj Spread: +26.0
D
Sim East Carolina (+28) Loss
Proj Spread: -2.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Agreement
AI o52.5 Win
Proj Total: 58.4
B
Sim o52.5 Win
Proj Total: 56.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 5, 2026 ECU @ ALA 10 - 48
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +52.9% more
East Carolina: 161.1 vs Alabama: 75.8
Turnovers (L5) +35.1% more
East Carolina: 1.3 vs Alabama: 0.9
Total Yards (L5) +23.6% more
East Carolina: 395.5 vs Alabama: 302.2
First Downs (L5) +16.8% more
East Carolina: 19.7 vs Alabama: 16.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ECU Score 16.2 10
ALA Score 42.2 48
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 16.4 / 19.7 28.0 / 5.0
Rushing Yards 75.8 / 161.1 227.0 / 2.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.4 0.53 / 0.0
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.65 / 0.35
Total Yards 302.2 / 395.5 487.0 / 162.0
Turnovers 0.9 / 1.3 1.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: +2500 / -6667 → -- / --
3%TICKETS97%
9%MONEY91%
Spread (ATS)
Open: +28.5 / -28.5 → +28 / -28 ↓
56%TICKETS44%
27%MONEY73%
Total (O/U)
Open: 54 → 52.5 ↓
27%TICKETS73%
32%MONEY68%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ECU
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -1.3 ATS +/-: -4.8
ALA Advantage
5-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 28.8 ATS +/-: +14.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ECU
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: -1.3 ATS +/-: -4.8
ALA Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 28.8 ATS +/-: +14.1
⚖️ Over/Under
ECU
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -4.5
ALA
5-0-0
O: 100.0% / U: 0.0% Total +/-: +16.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ALA
ECU
ALA
ECU
ML
100% 5-0
50% 2-2
20% 1-4
25% 1-3
ATS
60% 3-2
25% 1-3
20% 1-4
25% 1-3
TTL
60% 3-2
50% 2-2
80% 4-1
75% 3-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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