Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / UTEP @ Oklahoma UTEP @ OU

UTEP

UTEPUTEP

0-1  |  Road

0
FINAL
Fri, Sep 4 • 8:00 PM ET
Memorial Stadium (Norman, OK)
View Odds Details →

OKLAHOMA

OKLAHOMAOU

1-0  |  Home

51
Key Game
Brady Braun
KEY GAME

Brady Braun

#47 | Punter
@
Grayson Miller
KEY GAME

Grayson Miller

#43 | Place kicker
Player
Brady Braun None-None
Grayson Miller None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
UTEP
4%
📊
OKLAHOMA
96%
UTEP --
OKLAHOMA --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
59.0
Projected
Book Total
50.0
Over / Under Line
▲ Edge: +9.0 (Over)
Over 50.0 71%
Under 50.0 29%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+33.4
UTEP
Book Spread
+41
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.6 points (UTEP)
UTEPUTEP (+41) 0 OklahomaOU (-41)
UTEP Miners (+41) expected to cover
Spread Distribution
AI Model

UTEP Cover

99.1%

Oklahoma Cover

0.9%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around UTEP +33.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UTEP)

UTEP By 1-6 points

0.6%

UTEP By 7-13 points

0.2%

OU By 1-6 points

1.8%

OU By 7-13 points

5.0%

AI Model Projected Score
12.8
UTEP
Book Implied: 4.50
46.2
OKLAHOMA
Book Implied: 45.50
Simulated Score
19
UTEP
Book Implied: 4.50
30
OKLAHOMA
Book Implied: 45.50
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Oklahoma Win
96% Win Prob
A
Sim Oklahoma Win
86% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI UTEP (+41) Loss
Proj Spread: +33.4
B
Sim UTEP (+41) Loss
Proj Spread: +11.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
Divergence
AI o50.0 Win
Proj Total: 59.0
A
Sim u50.0 Loss
Proj Total: 49.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 4, 2026 UTEP @ OU 0 - 51
Sep 3, 2022 UTEP @ OU 13 - 45
Sep 2, 2017 UTEP @ OU 7 - 56
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +53.0% more
UTEP: 2.7 vs Oklahoma: 1.3
Rushing Yards (L5) +25.1% more
UTEP: 117.3 vs Oklahoma: 87.8
First Downs (L5) +11.7% more
UTEP: 18.1 vs Oklahoma: 16.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UTEP Score 12.8 0
OU Score 46.2 51
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 16.0 / 18.1 18.0 / 10.0
Rushing Yards 87.8 / 117.3 170.0 / 112.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.3 0.55 / 0.15
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.4 0.51 / 0.49
Total Yards 338.0 / 346.0 401.0 / 198.0
Turnovers 1.3 / 2.7 1.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- / 0 → -- / --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: +40.5 / -40.5 → +41 / -41 ↑
90%TICKETS10%
81%MONEY19%
Total (O/U)
Open: 50.5 → 50 ↓
38%TICKETS62%
53%MONEY47%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UTEP
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -25.0 ATS +/-: -8.2
OU Advantage
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 6.0 ATS +/-: -8.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UTEP
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -25.0 ATS +/-: -8.2
OU Advantage
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: 6.0 ATS +/-: -8.0
⚖️ Over/Under
UTEP
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +6.3
OU
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -8.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
OU
UTEP
OU
UTEP
ML
100% 4-0
100% 5-0
100% 4-0
80% 4-1
ATS
50% 2-2
0% 0-5
50% 2-2
0% 0-5
TTL
50% 2-2
100% 5-0
25% 1-3
60% 3-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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