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LOS ANGELES

ANGELSLAA

62-100  |  Road

11
FINAL
Fri, Jun 19 • 5:40 PM ET
Sutter Health Park
View Odds Details →

ATHLETICS

ATHLETICSATH

64-98  |  Home

12
Probable Pitchers
Samy Natera Jr.
STARTING PITCHER

Samy Natera Jr.

#52 | Relief Pitcher
@
Elvis Alvarado
STARTING PITCHER

Elvis Alvarado

#37 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Samy Natera Jr. None-None 0.00 -- -- --
Elvis Alvarado None-None 5.00 -- 2.0 2
None-None W-L None-None
0.00 Ldr ERA 5.00
-- WHIP --
-- IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 2.0
-- K (Strikeouts) Ldr 2
AI Model Win Probability
ANGELS
41%
📊
ATHLETICS
59%
ANGELS --
ATHLETICS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 50%
Under 0 50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.0
ATHLETICS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.0 points (Athletics)
AngelsLAA (-3.5) 0 AthleticsATH (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Angels Cover

6.7%

Athletics Cover

93.3%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around ATH -6.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ATH)

LAA By 1-2 runs

3.5%

LAA By 3-4 runs

1.2%

ATH By 1-2 runs

10.6%

ATH By 3-4 runs

16.3%

AI Model Projected Score
2
LOS ANGELES
8
ATHLETICS
Simulated Score
3
LOS ANGELES
6
ATHLETICS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Athletics Win
59% Win Prob
C
Sim Athletics Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Athletics (-1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -6.0
D
Sim Athletics (-1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u10.0 Loss
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Sim u10.0 Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 23, 2026 LAA @ ATH 3 - 7
Sep 22, 2026 LAA @ ATH 7 - 9
Jun 28, 2026 ATH @ LAA 1 - 4
Jun 27, 2026 ATH @ LAA 2 - 5
Jun 26, 2026 ATH @ LAA 9 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Los Angeles LAA
vs
Athletics ATH
162
Games Played
162
4.04
Runs / Game
▲ 4.31
.234
Avg (AVG)
▲ .245
.310
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .317
.369
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .402
.679
OPS
▲ .719
154
Home Runs
▲ 194
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +111.0% more
Athletics: 2.0 vs Los Angeles: 0.9
Strikeouts (L5) +87.4% more
Athletics: 9.5 vs Los Angeles: 5.1
Total Bases (L5) +32.5% more
Athletics: 16.5 vs Los Angeles: 12.5
Home Runs (Season) +26.0% more
Athletics: 194.0 vs Los Angeles: 154.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LAA Score 2.0 11
ATH Score 8.0 12
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.2 / 1.1 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 9.0 / 7.6 12.0 / 11.0
Home Runs 2.0 / 0.9 4.0 / 5.0
Strikeouts 9.5 / 5.1 12.0 / 10.0
Total Bases 16.5 / 12.5 27.0 / 28.0
Walks 3.7 / 3.2 5.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LAA
62-100-0 (38.3%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
ATH Advantage
64-98-0 (39.5%)
Margin: -1.5 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LAA Advantage
(50.6%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
ATH
(47.5%)
Margin: -1.5 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
LAA
71-88-3
O: 44.7% / U: 55.4% Total +/-: +0.3
ATH
84-73-5
O: 53.5% / U: 46.5% Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATH
LAA
ATH
LAA
ML
59% 95-67
59% 96-66
54% 87-74
55% 89-73
ATS
52% 84-78
60% 97-65
50% 81-80
51% 82-80
TTL
54% 84-73-5
53% 83-74-5
42% 66-90-5
52% 82-75-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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