CLEVELAND
GUARDIANSCLE
85-77 | Road
3
HOUSTON
ASTROSHOU
81-81 | Home
9
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Erik Sabrowski
#62 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Steven Okert
#48 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Erik Sabrowski | None-None | 2.53 | -- | 0.1 | 1 |
| Steven Okert | None-None | 2.55 | -- | 2.0 | 3 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
2.53 Ldr
ERA
2.55
--
WHIP
--
0.1
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 2.0
1
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 3
AI Model Win Probability
GUARDIANS
45%
ASTROS
55%
GUARDIANS
--
ASTROS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
11.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
45%
Under 0
55%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
HOUSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Houston)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around HOU -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HOU)
CLE By 1-2 runs
16.3%
CLE By 3-4 runs
10.6%
HOU By 1-2 runs
19.6%
HOU By 3-4 runs
16.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Cleveland
5
CLEVELAND
Houston
6
HOUSTON
Simulated Score
Cleveland
4
CLEVELAND
Houston
5
HOUSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Astros
Win
55% Win Prob
D
Sim
Astros
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Astros (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
A
Sim
Astros (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o8.5
Win
Proj Total: 11.0
D
Sim
o8.5
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jun 21, 2026
CLE @ HOU
1 - 2
Jun 20, 2026
CLE @ HOU
8 - 1
Jun 19, 2026
CLE @ HOU
3 - 9
Apr 22, 2026
HOU @ CLE
2 - 0
Apr 21, 2026
HOU @ CLE
5 - 8
Season Statistics Comparison
Cleveland
CLE
vs
Houston
HOU
162
▲
Games Played
2
4.19
▲
Runs / Game
3.00
.239
▲
Avg (AVG)
.169
.316
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.229
.380
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.354
.696
▲
OPS
.582
162
▲
Home Runs
4
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5)
+38.2% more
Houston: 8.2
vs
Cleveland: 6.0
Total Bases (L5)
+25.2% more
Houston: 14.4
vs
Cleveland: 11.5
Home Runs (Season)
+97.5% more
Cleveland: 162.0
vs
Houston: 4.0
Walks (L5)
+51.7% more
Cleveland: 4.7
vs
Houston: 2.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CLE Score
5.0
3
HOU Score
6.0
9
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.2 / 0.5
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
8.2 / 6.0
12.0 / 7.0
Home Runs
1.2 / 1.4
3.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
10.0 / 9.7
15.0 / 11.0
Total Bases
14.4 / 11.5
25.0 / 13.0
Walks
2.3 / 4.7
0.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CLE
Advantage
86-79-0
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
HOU
81-83-0
(49.4%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CLE
(50.3%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
HOU
Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CLE
80-84-1
O: 48.8% / U: 51.2%
Total +/-: +0.5
HOU
81-74-9
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
HOU
CLE
HOU
CLE
ML
50%
81-82
54%
87-74
47%
77-87
49%
80-82
ATS
56%
91-72
58%
93-68
55%
90-74
59%
95-67
TTL
45%
70-84-9
55%
88-71-2
45%
69-86-9
43%
69-90-2
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