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ILLINOIS STATE

REDBIRDSILST

23-13  |  Road

66
FINAL
Thu, Apr 2 • 5:47 PM ET
Hinkle Fieldhouse
View Odds Details →

AUBURN

TIGERSAUB

22-16  |  Home

88
AI Model Win Probability
REDBIRDS
55%
📊
TIGERS
45%
REDBIRDS --
TIGERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
131.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 40%
Under 0 60%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+3.0
AUBURN
Book Spread
--
Book Line
RedbirdsILST (-3.5) 0 TigersAUB (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Redbirds Cover

38.2%

Tigers Cover

61.8%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around AUB +3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (AUB)

ILST By 1-7 points

27.2%

ILST By 8-14 points

20.1%

AUB By 1-7 points

21.6%

AUB By 8-14 points

10.7%

AI Model Projected Score
67
ILLINOIS STATE
64
AUBURN
Simulated Score
ILLINOIS STATE
AUBURN
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Redbirds Loss
55% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Tigers (+8.5) Win
Proj Spread: +3.0
A
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u149.5 Loss
Proj Total: 131.0
B
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 2, 2026 ILST @ AUB 66 - 88
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +17.4% more
Illinois State: 11.0 vs Auburn: 9.1
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +2.6%
Illinois State: 34.0% vs Auburn: 31.4%
Blocks (L5) +46.1% more
Auburn: 3.7 vs Illinois State: 2.6
Steals (L5) +37.3% more
Auburn: 6.3 vs Illinois State: 4.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ILST Score 67.0 66
AUB Score 64.0 88
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 31.4 / 34.0 57.0 / 40.0
Assists 12.9 / 13.1 20.0 / 15.0
Blocks 3.7 / 2.6 4.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 45.9 / 46.2 61.0 / 46.0
Free Throw % 71.1 / 71.5 73.0 / 86.0
Rebounding 36.5 / 34.1 26.0 / 26.0
Steals 6.3 / 4.6 13.0 / 2.0
Turnovers 9.1 / 11.0 9.0 / 18.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
9%TICKETS91%
14%MONEY86%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
47%TICKETS53%
49%MONEY51%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
61%TICKETS39%
53%MONEY47%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ILST Advantage
23-13-0 (63.9%)
Margin: 6.2 ATS +/-: +2.0
AUB
22-16-0 (57.9%)
Margin: 4.2 ATS +/-: -1.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ILST Advantage
20-15-0 (57.1%)
Margin: 6.2 ATS +/-: +2.0
AUB
15-23-0 (39.5%)
Margin: 4.2 ATS +/-: -1.5
⚖️ Over/Under
ILST
15-20-0
O: 42.9% / U: 57.1% Total +/-: -3.3
AUB
22-16-0
O: 57.9% / U: 42.1% Total +/-: +4.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
AUB
ILST
AUB
ILST
ML
58% 22-16
42% 15-21
75% 24-8
71% 24-10
ATS
74% 28-10
58% 21-15
75% 24-8
71% 24-10
TTL
53% 20-18
58% 21-15
100% 32-0
100% 34-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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