HOUSTON
ROCKETSHOU
0-0 | Road
108
MINNESOTA
TIMBERWOLVESMIN
1-1 | Home
110
AI Model Win Probability
ROCKETS
50%
TIMBERWOLVES
50%
ROCKETS
--
TIMBERWOLVES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
246.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
40%
Under 0
60%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-8.0
MINNESOTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +8.0 points (Minnesota)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MIN -8.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIN)
HOU By 1-7 points
13.7%
HOU By 8-14 points
4.8%
MIN By 1-7 points
25.3%
MIN By 8-14 points
26.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Houston
119
HOUSTON
Minnesota
127
MINNESOTA
Simulated Score
Houston
HOUSTON
Minnesota
MINNESOTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Timberwolves
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Timberwolves (+1.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -8.0
C
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o222.5
Loss
Proj Total: 246.0
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 10, 2026
MIN @ HOU
136 - 132
Mar 25, 2026
HOU @ MIN
108 - 110
Jan 16, 2026
MIN @ HOU
105 - 110
Feb 21, 2025
MIN @ HOU
115 - 121
Feb 6, 2025
HOU @ MIN
114 - 127
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+26.3% more
Minnesota: 6.1
vs
Houston: 4.9
Steals (L5)
+12.4% more
Minnesota: 9.0
vs
Houston: 8.0
Rebounding (L5)
+9.6% more
Minnesota: 48.2
vs
Houston: 44.0
Free Throw % (L5)
+7.6%
Minnesota: 79.2%
vs
Houston: 71.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
HOU Score
119.0
108
MIN Score
127.0
110
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
36.8 / 34.7
35.0 / 31.0
Assists
25.7 / 28.4
27.0 / 26.0
Blocks
6.1 / 4.9
12.0 / 10.0
Field Goal %
46.2 / 50.8
42.0 / 41.0
Free Throw %
79.2 / 71.6
70.0 / 92.0
Rebounding
48.2 / 44.0
49.0 / 54.0
Steals
9.0 / 8.0
11.0 / 6.0
Turnovers
15.6 / 16.3
17.0 / 21.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
HOU
Advantage
54-34-0
(61.4%)
Margin: 4.7
ATS +/-: -1.5
MIN
55-39-0
(58.5%)
Margin: 2.2
ATS +/-: -0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
HOU
38-50-0
(43.2%)
Margin: 4.7
ATS +/-: -1.5
MIN
Advantage
42-52-0
(44.7%)
Margin: 2.2
ATS +/-: -0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
HOU
41-46-1
O: 47.1% / U: 52.9%
Total +/-: -0.3
MIN
43-51-0
O: 45.7% / U: 54.3%
Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIN
HOU
MIN
HOU
ML
54%
63-53
61%
69-44
54%
50-43
59%
51-35
ATS
58%
67-49
62%
70-43
54%
50-43
59%
51-35
TTL
63%
72-43-1
51%
58-55
100%
93-0
100%
86-0
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