Home / MLB Projections MLB / Guardians @ Rangers CLE @ TEX

CLEVELAND

GUARDIANSCLE

85-77  |  Road

0
FINAL
Sat, Aug 23 • 3:05 PM ET
Matchup Hub
View Odds Details →

TEXAS

RANGERSTEX

80-82  |  Home

10
Probable Pitchers
Austin Hedges
STARTING PITCHER

Austin Hedges

#27 | Catcher
@
Ezequiel Duran
STARTING PITCHER

Ezequiel Duran

#20 | Shortstop
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Austin Hedges None-None -- -- -- --
Ezequiel Duran None-None -- -- -- --
None-None W-L None-None
-- ERA --
-- WHIP --
-- IP (Innings Pitched) --
-- K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
GUARDIANS
51%
📊
RANGERS
49%
GUARDIANS --
RANGERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 35%
Under 0 65%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.7
CLEVELAND
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.7 points (Cleveland)
GuardiansCLE (-3.5) 0 RangersTEX (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Guardians Cover

57.1%

Rangers Cover

42.9%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around CLE -0.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CLE)

CLE By 1-2 runs

19.4%

CLE By 3-4 runs

15.6%

TEX By 1-2 runs

17.0%

TEX By 3-4 runs

11.4%

AI Model Projected Score
4.36
CLEVELAND
3.64
TEXAS
Simulated Score
3
CLEVELAND
5
TEXAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Guardians Loss
51% Win Prob
D
Sim Rangers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Guardians (-0) Loss
Proj Runs: -0.7
B
Sim Rangers (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jul 1, 2026 TEX @ CLE 4 - 9
Jun 30, 2026 TEX @ CLE 4 - 2
Jun 29, 2026 TEX @ CLE 6 - 3
Jun 7, 2026 CLE @ TEX 0 - 10
Jun 6, 2026 CLE @ TEX 6 - 0
Season Statistics Comparison
Cleveland CLE
vs
Texas TEX
162
Games Played
162
4.19 ▲
Runs / Game
4.15
.239
Avg (AVG)
▲ .242
.316
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .317
.380
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .396
.696
OPS
▲ .713
162
Home Runs
▲ 183
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5) +36.0% more
Cleveland: 0.4 vs Texas: 0.0
Walks (L5) +100.6% more
Texas: 3.3 vs Cleveland: 1.7
Home Runs (L5) +80.0% more
Texas: 1.3 vs Cleveland: 0.5
Strikeouts (L5) +38.2% more
Texas: 9.3 vs Cleveland: 6.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CLE Score 4.4 0
TEX Score 3.6 10
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.0 / 0.4 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 8.7 / 6.8 10.0 / 3.0
Home Runs 1.3 / 0.5 3.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 9.3 / 6.7 11.0 / 3.0
Total Bases 14.3 / 10.5 22.0 / 3.0
Walks 3.3 / 1.7 0.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
42%TICKETS58%
52%MONEY48%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
61%TICKETS39%
42%MONEY58%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
49%TICKETS51%
29%MONEY71%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CLE Advantage
86-79-0 (52.1%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
TEX
80-82-0 (49.4%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CLE Advantage
(50.3%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
TEX
(48.2%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CLE
80-84-1
O: 48.8% / U: 51.2% Total +/-: +0.5
TEX
84-69-9
O: 54.9% / U: 45.1% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TEX
CLE
TEX
CLE
ML
53% 86-76
54% 87-74
57% 91-70
49% 80-82
ATS
57% 92-70
58% 93-68
61% 98-63
59% 95-67
TTL
53% 78-70-14
55% 88-71-2
55% 81-66-14
43% 69-90-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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