HOUSTON
ASTROSHOU
81-81 | Road
9
BALTIMORE
ORIOLESBAL
79-82 | Home
8
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Bryan Abreu
#52 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Rico Garcia
#50 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryan Abreu | None-None | 1.52 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
| Rico Garcia | None-None | 3.15 | -- | 1.0 | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
1.52 Ldr
ERA
3.15
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
1 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
ASTROS
59%
ORIOLES
41%
ASTROS
--
ORIOLES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
64%
Under 0
36%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.4
BALTIMORE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.4 points (Baltimore)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around BAL -0.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BAL)
HOU By 1-2 runs
17.7%
HOU By 3-4 runs
12.4%
BAL By 1-2 runs
19.0%
BAL By 3-4 runs
14.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Houston
3.31
HOUSTON
Baltimore
3.72
BALTIMORE
Simulated Score
Houston
3
HOUSTON
Baltimore
5
BALTIMORE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Orioles
Loss
41% Win Prob
D
Sim
Orioles
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Orioles (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -0.4
D
Sim
Orioles (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 7.0
C
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jul 19, 2026
BAL @ HOU
5 - 2
Jul 18, 2026
BAL @ HOU
4 - 2
Jul 17, 2026
BAL @ HOU
3 - 2
Apr 30, 2026
HOU @ BAL
3 - 10
Apr 28, 2026
HOU @ BAL
3 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
Houston
HOU
vs
Baltimore
BAL
2
Games Played
▲
161
3.00
Runs / Game
▲
4.46
.169
Avg (AVG)
▲
.234
.229
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.314
.354
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.396
.582
OPS
▲
.711
4
Home Runs
▲
199
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+4875.0% more
Baltimore: 199.0
vs
Houston: 4.0
Errors (L5)
+94.0% more
Baltimore: 1.3
vs
Houston: 0.4
Runs per Game (Season)
+48.7% more
Baltimore: 4.5
vs
Houston: 3.0
Hits (L5)
+24.8% more
Baltimore: 10.4
vs
Houston: 8.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
HOU Score
3.3
9
BAL Score
3.7
8
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
1.3 / 0.4
1.0 / 1.0
Hits
10.4 / 8.3
9.0 / 11.0
Home Runs
1.2 / 1.3
2.0 / 4.0
Strikeouts
7.5 / 8.4
5.0 / 11.0
Total Bases
15.6 / 14.5
17.0 / 25.0
Walks
3.7 / 4.8
2.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
HOU
Advantage
81-83-0
(49.4%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
BAL
79-82-0
(49.1%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
HOU
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
BAL
Advantage
(52.8%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
HOU
81-74-9
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +0.7
BAL
80-77-4
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0%
Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BAL
HOU
BAL
HOU
ML
53%
83-73
50%
81-82
57%
90-69
47%
77-87
ATS
61%
95-60-1
56%
91-72
57%
90-68-1
55%
90-74
TTL
54%
81-70-5
45%
70-84-9
51%
78-75-6
45%
69-86-9
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