CLEVELAND
GUARDIANSCLE
85-77 | Road
3
TEXAS
RANGERSTEX
80-82 | Home
4
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Cade Smith
#36 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Nathan Eovaldi
#17 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cade Smith | None-None | 3.14 | -- | -- | -- |
| Nathan Eovaldi | None-None | 1.73 | -- | 7.0 | 9 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
3.14
ERA
Ldr 1.73
--
WHIP
--
--
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 7.0
--
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 9
AI Model Win Probability
GUARDIANS
52%
RANGERS
48%
GUARDIANS
--
RANGERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
50%
Under 0
50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.7
CLEVELAND
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.7 points (Cleveland)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around CLE -0.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CLE)
CLE By 1-2 runs
19.4%
CLE By 3-4 runs
15.6%
TEX By 1-2 runs
17.0%
TEX By 3-4 runs
11.4%
AI Model Projected Score
Cleveland
4.36
CLEVELAND
Texas
3.64
TEXAS
Simulated Score
Cleveland
3
CLEVELAND
Texas
5
TEXAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Guardians
Loss
52% Win Prob
D
Sim
Rangers
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Guardians (-0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -0.7
B
Sim
Rangers (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jul 1, 2026
TEX @ CLE
4 - 9
Jun 30, 2026
TEX @ CLE
4 - 2
Jun 29, 2026
TEX @ CLE
6 - 3
Jun 7, 2026
CLE @ TEX
0 - 10
Jun 6, 2026
CLE @ TEX
6 - 0
Season Statistics Comparison
Cleveland
CLE
vs
Texas
TEX
162
Games Played
162
4.19
▲
Runs / Game
4.15
.239
Avg (AVG)
▲
.242
.316
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.317
.380
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.396
.696
OPS
▲
.713
162
Home Runs
▲
183
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5)
+52.0% more
Cleveland: 0.6
vs
Texas: 0.0
Walks (L5)
+100.4% more
Texas: 5.0
vs
Cleveland: 2.5
Hits (L5)
+43.0% more
Texas: 9.5
vs
Cleveland: 6.7
Total Bases (L5)
+32.5% more
Texas: 13.5
vs
Cleveland: 10.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CLE Score
4.4
3
TEX Score
3.6
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.0 / 0.6
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
9.5 / 6.7
7.0 / 7.0
Home Runs
0.9 / 0.7
2.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
7.4 / 7.6
13.0 / 5.0
Total Bases
13.5 / 10.2
16.0 / 11.0
Walks
5.0 / 2.5
0.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CLE
Advantage
86-79-0
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
TEX
80-82-0
(49.4%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CLE
Advantage
(50.3%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
TEX
(48.2%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CLE
80-84-1
O: 48.8% / U: 51.2%
Total +/-: +0.5
TEX
84-69-9
O: 54.9% / U: 45.1%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TEX
CLE
TEX
CLE
ML
53%
86-76
54%
87-74
57%
91-70
49%
80-82
ATS
57%
92-70
58%
93-68
61%
98-63
59%
95-67
TTL
53%
78-70-14
55%
88-71-2
55%
81-66-14
43%
69-90-2
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