Home / MLB Projections MLB / Royals @ Tigers KC @ DET

KANSAS CITY

ROYALSKC

69-93  |  Road

5
FINAL
Fri, Aug 22 • 3:10 PM ET
Matchup Hub
View Odds Details →

DETROIT

TIGERSDET

76-86  |  Home

7
Probable Pitchers
Nick Loftin
STARTING PITCHER

Nick Loftin

#12 | Third Base
@
Kyle Finnegan
STARTING PITCHER

Kyle Finnegan

#67 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Nick Loftin None-None -- -- -- --
Kyle Finnegan None-None 3.44 -- 2.0 1
None-None W-L None-None
-- ERA 3.44
-- WHIP --
-- IP (Innings Pitched) 2.0
-- K (Strikeouts) 1
AI Model Win Probability
ROYALS
43%
📊
TIGERS
57%
ROYALS --
TIGERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 50%
Under 0 50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.4
DETROIT
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.4 points (Detroit)
RoyalsKC (-3.5) 0 TigersDET (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Royals Cover

36.7%

Tigers Cover

63.3%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around DET -1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DET)

KC By 1-2 runs

15.4%

KC By 3-4 runs

9.6%

DET By 1-2 runs

19.7%

DET By 3-4 runs

17.2%

AI Model Projected Score
4.45
KANSAS CITY
5.81
DETROIT
Simulated Score
4
KANSAS CITY
5
DETROIT
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Tigers Win
57% Win Prob
D
Sim Tigers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Tigers (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -1.4
B
Sim Tigers (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 10.3
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 23, 2026 DET @ KC 7 - 11
Aug 22, 2026 DET @ KC 1 - 3
Aug 21, 2026 DET @ KC 2 - 5
Jul 26, 2026 KC @ DET 5 - 4
Jul 25, 2026 KC @ DET 3 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Kansas City KC
vs
Detroit DET
162
Games Played
162
4.26
Runs / Game
▲ 4.46
.247 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.241
.316
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .320
.402 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.400
.718
OPS
▲ .720
170
Home Runs
▲ 181
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5) +26.7% more
Detroit: 10.3 vs Kansas City: 8.1
Errors (L5) +21.0% more
Detroit: 0.9 vs Kansas City: 0.6
Walks (L5) +9.6% more
Detroit: 3.0 vs Kansas City: 2.7
Home Runs (Season) +6.5% more
Detroit: 181.0 vs Kansas City: 170.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
KC Score 4.5 5
DET Score 5.8 7
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.9 / 0.6 1.0 / 1.0
Hits 7.5 / 8.2 12.0 / 11.0
Home Runs 0.8 / 2.0 2.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 10.3 / 8.1 2.0 / 7.0
Total Bases 12.9 / 15.5 22.0 / 15.0
Walks 3.0 / 2.7 4.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
22%TICKETS78%
27%MONEY73%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
43%TICKETS57%
11%MONEY89%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
63%TICKETS37%
61%MONEY39%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
KC
69-93-0 (42.6%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
DET Advantage
76-86-0 (46.9%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
KC
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
DET Advantage
(51.8%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
KC
73-85-4
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: +0.6
DET
70-84-8
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6% Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DET
KC
DET
KC
ML
54% 86-73
55% 89-72
54% 87-73
56% 90-70
ATS
64% 101-58
57% 91-70
57% 91-69
58% 93-67
TTL
46% 69-81-9
58% 90-64-7
46% 69-81-10
54% 83-70-7
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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