Home / MLB Projections MLB / Blue Jays @ White Sox TOR @ CHW

TORONTO

BLUE JAYSTOR

79-83  |  Road

6
FINAL
Tue, Jul 8 • 3:40 PM ET
Matchup Hub
View Odds Details →

CHICAGO

WHITE SOXCHW

84-78  |  Home

1
Probable Pitchers
Davis Schneider
STARTING PITCHER

Davis Schneider

#36 | Left Field
@
Colson Montgomery
STARTING PITCHER

Colson Montgomery

#12 | Shortstop
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Davis Schneider None-None -- -- -- --
Colson Montgomery None-None -- -- -- --
None-None W-L None-None
-- ERA --
-- WHIP --
-- IP (Innings Pitched) --
-- K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
BLUE JAYS
74%
📊
WHITE SOX
26%
BLUE JAYS --
WHITE SOX --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 50%
Under 0 50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
TORONTO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Toronto)
Blue JaysTOR (-3.5) 0 White SoxCHW (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Blue Jays Cover

59.4%

White Sox Cover

40.6%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around TOR -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TOR)

TOR By 1-2 runs

19.6%

TOR By 3-4 runs

16.2%

CHW By 1-2 runs

16.4%

CHW By 3-4 runs

10.8%

AI Model Projected Score
5.19
TORONTO
4.24
CHICAGO
Simulated Score
3
TORONTO
6
CHICAGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Blue Jays Win
74% Win Prob
B
Sim White Sox Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Blue Jays (-0) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Sim White Sox (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 9.4
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jul 19, 2026 CHW @ TOR 3 - 0
Jul 18, 2026 CHW @ TOR 0 - 1
Jul 17, 2026 CHW @ TOR 12 - 4
Apr 5, 2026 TOR @ CHW 0 - 3
Apr 4, 2026 TOR @ CHW 3 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
Toronto TOR
vs
Chicago CHW
162 ▲
Games Played
1
4.00
Runs / Game
▲ 6.00
.247
Avg (AVG)
▲ .324
.310
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .415
.381
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .412
.692
OPS
▲ .826
152 ▲
Home Runs
1
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season) +99.3% more
Toronto: 152.0 vs Chicago: 1.0
Home Runs (L5) +70.3% more
Toronto: 1.8 vs Chicago: 0.5
Errors (L5) +56.0% more
Toronto: 0.7 vs Chicago: 0.2
Strikeouts (L5) +46.9% more
Toronto: 9.3 vs Chicago: 5.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TOR Score 5.2 6
CHW Score 4.2 1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.2 / 0.7 1.0 / 0.0
Hits 8.5 / 8.9 4.0 / 12.0
Home Runs 0.5 / 1.8 1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 5.0 / 9.3 2.0 / 1.0
Total Bases 12.4 / 15.6 8.0 / 19.0
Walks 3.9 / 4.2 4.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
92%TICKETS8%
94%MONEY6%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
83%TICKETS17%
95%MONEY5%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
63%TICKETS37%
62%MONEY38%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TOR
79-83-0 (48.8%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
CHW Advantage
88-79-0 (52.7%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TOR
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
CHW Advantage
(58.1%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TOR
81-76-5
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4% Total +/-: +0.3
CHW
96-69-2
O: 58.2% / U: 41.8% Total +/-: +0.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHW
TOR
CHW
TOR
ML
49% 81-86
46% 74-87
56% 94-73
50% 80-80
ATS
59% 99-68
56% 90-71
56% 93-74
49% 79-81
TTL
58% 96-69-2
51% 80-76-5
51% 84-81-2
45% 70-85-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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