CHICAGO
WHITE SOXCHW
84-78 | Road
1
BALTIMORE
ORIOLESBAL
79-82 | Home
2
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Sean Burke
#59 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Gunnar Henderson
#2 | Shortstop| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sean Burke | None-None | 4.20 | -- | 6.0 | 6 |
| Gunnar Henderson | None-None | -- | -- | -- | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
4.20
ERA
--
--
WHIP
--
6.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
--
6
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
WHITE SOX
100%
ORIOLES
0%
WHITE SOX
--
ORIOLES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.7
BALTIMORE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.7 points (Baltimore)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around BAL -1.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BAL)
CHW By 1-2 runs
14.5%
CHW By 3-4 runs
8.7%
BAL By 1-2 runs
19.7%
BAL By 3-4 runs
17.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Chicago
2.58
CHICAGO
Baltimore
4.26
BALTIMORE
Simulated Score
Chicago
CHICAGO
Baltimore
BALTIMORE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Orioles
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Orioles (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.7
D
Sim
Proj Runs:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 6.8
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jul 1, 2026
CHW @ BAL
1 - 6
Jun 30, 2026
CHW @ BAL
9 - 3
Jun 29, 2026
CHW @ BAL
8 - 2
Apr 8, 2026
BAL @ CHW
5 - 3
Apr 7, 2026
BAL @ CHW
4 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Chicago
CHW
vs
Baltimore
BAL
1
Games Played
▲
161
6.00
▲
Runs / Game
4.46
.324
▲
Avg (AVG)
.234
.415
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.314
.412
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.396
.826
▲
OPS
.711
1
Home Runs
▲
199
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+19800.0% more
Baltimore: 199.0
vs
Chicago: 1.0
Strikeouts (L5)
+17.7% more
Baltimore: 11.0
vs
Chicago: 9.3
Errors (L5)
+11.0% more
Baltimore: 0.4
vs
Chicago: 0.3
Hits (L5)
+8.9% more
Baltimore: 9.9
vs
Chicago: 9.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CHW Score
2.6
1
BAL Score
4.3
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.4 / 0.3
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
9.9 / 9.1
7.0 / 6.0
Home Runs
0.7 / 1.0
0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
11.0 / 9.3
9.0 / 8.0
Total Bases
14.1 / 16.0
8.0 / 8.0
Walks
3.4 / 4.6
2.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CHW
Advantage
88-79-0
(52.7%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
BAL
79-82-0
(49.1%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CHW
Advantage
(58.1%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
BAL
(52.8%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CHW
96-69-2
O: 58.2% / U: 41.8%
Total +/-: +0.9
BAL
80-77-4
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0%
Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BAL
CHW
BAL
CHW
ML
53%
83-73
49%
81-86
57%
90-69
56%
94-73
ATS
61%
95-60-1
59%
99-68
57%
90-68-1
56%
93-74
TTL
54%
81-70-5
58%
96-69-2
51%
78-75-6
51%
84-81-2
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