SAN DIEGO
PADRESSD
91-71 | Road
1
ATLANTA
BRAVESATL
94-68 | Home
7
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Yuki Matsui
#1 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Grant Holmes
#66 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yuki Matsui | None-None | 2.53 | -- | 1.2 | 4 |
| Grant Holmes | None-None | 3.68 | -- | 7.0 | 6 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
2.53 Ldr
ERA
3.68
--
WHIP
--
1.2
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 7.0
4
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 6
AI Model Win Probability
PADRES
59%
BRAVES
41%
PADRES
--
BRAVES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
37%
Under 0
63%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.3
SAN DIEGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.3 points (San Diego)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around SD -1.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SD)
SD By 1-2 runs
19.7%
SD By 3-4 runs
17.1%
ATL By 1-2 runs
15.5%
ATL By 3-4 runs
9.7%
AI Model Projected Score
San Diego
5.18
SAN DIEGO
Atlanta
3.86
ATLANTA
Simulated Score
San Diego
SAN DIEGO
Atlanta
ATLANTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Padres
Loss
59% Win Prob
D
Sim
Padres
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Padres (-0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.3
A
Sim
Padres (-0)
Loss
Proj Runs: 0.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 0.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jul 23, 2026
SD @ ATL
5 - 6
Jul 22, 2026
SD @ ATL
6 - 7
Jul 21, 2026
SD @ ATL
8 - 3
Jul 20, 2026
SD @ ATL
2 - 3
Jun 24, 2026
ATL @ SD
2 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
San Diego
SD
vs
Atlanta
ATL
2
▲
Games Played
1
6.00
▲
Runs / Game
5.00
.328
▲
Avg (AVG)
.233
.362
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.324
.563
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.433
.925
▲
OPS
.757
4
▲
Home Runs
1
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5)
+60.0% more
San Diego: 0.9
vs
Atlanta: 0.3
Walks (L5)
+26.3% more
San Diego: 3.9
vs
Atlanta: 2.9
Strikeouts (L5)
+25.0% more
San Diego: 8.7
vs
Atlanta: 6.5
OPS (Season)
+16.8%
San Diego: 92.5%
vs
Atlanta: 75.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SD Score
5.2
1
ATL Score
3.9
7
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.3 / 0.9
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.8 / 6.6
13.0 / 6.0
Home Runs
1.3 / 1.3
2.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
6.5 / 8.7
6.0 / 9.0
Total Bases
13.9 / 11.9
20.0 / 8.0
Walks
2.9 / 3.9
4.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SD
94-74-0
(56.0%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
ATL
Advantage
97-72-0
(57.4%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SD
Advantage
(57.1%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
ATL
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SD
78-85-5
O: 47.9% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.2
ATL
76-83-10
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATL
SD
ATL
SD
ML
46%
77-90
51%
85-83
54%
90-78
51%
85-82
ATS
57%
96-71
54%
91-77
52%
87-81
55%
92-75
TTL
53%
83-73-11
51%
82-80-6
49%
76-80-11
54%
86-74-6
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