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BALTIMORE

ORIOLESBAL

79-82  |  Road

5
FINAL
Fri, May 23 • 9:35 AM ET
Matchup Hub
View Odds Details →

BOSTON

RED SOXBOS

87-75  |  Home

19
Probable Pitchers
Carlos Narvaez
STARTING PITCHER

Carlos Narvaez

#75 | Catcher
@
👤
STARTING PITCHER

Justin Slaten

#63 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Carlos Narvaez None-None -- -- -- --
Justin Slaten None-None 3.92 -- 0.2 1
None-None W-L None-None
-- ERA 3.92
-- WHIP --
-- IP (Innings Pitched) 0.2
-- K (Strikeouts) 1
AI Model Win Probability
ORIOLES
0%
📊
RED SOX
100%
ORIOLES --
RED SOX --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
0.0
BALTIMORE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
OriolesBAL (-3.5) 0 Red SoxBOS (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Orioles Cover

50.1%

Red Sox Cover

49.9%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around BAL 0.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BAL)

BAL By 1-2 runs

18.4%

BAL By 3-4 runs

13.6%

BOS By 1-2 runs

18.4%

BOS By 3-4 runs

13.5%

AI Model Projected Score
3.82
BALTIMORE
3.81
BOSTON
Simulated Score
BALTIMORE
BOSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Orioles Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Orioles (-0) Loss
Proj Runs: 0.0
D
Sim
Proj Runs:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 7.6
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 6, 2026 BOS @ BAL 3 - 1
Sep 5, 2026 BOS @ BAL 5 - 0
Sep 4, 2026 BOS @ BAL 1 - 0
Sep 3, 2026 BOS @ BAL 6 - 5
Jul 22, 2026 BAL @ BOS 5 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Baltimore BAL
vs
Boston BOS
161 ▲
Games Played
2
4.46 ▲
Runs / Game
1.00
.234 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.117
.314 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.159
.396 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.250
.711 ▲
OPS
.409
199 ▲
Home Runs
2
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season) +99.0% more
Baltimore: 199.0 vs Boston: 2.0
Runs per Game (Season) +77.6% more
Baltimore: 4.5 vs Boston: 1.0
Errors (L5) +41.0% more
Baltimore: 0.7 vs Boston: 0.3
Hits (L5) +31.2% more
Baltimore: 10.1 vs Boston: 6.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BAL Score 3.8 5
BOS Score 3.8 19
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.3 / 0.7 0.0 / 2.0
Hits 6.9 / 10.1 20.0 / 14.0
Home Runs 0.9 / 1.1 3.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 7.3 / 8.0 11.0 / 7.0
Total Bases 11.4 / 15.5 35.0 / 17.0
Walks 3.9 / 4.0 3.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
18%TICKETS82%
13%MONEY87%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
31%TICKETS69%
3%MONEY97%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
56%TICKETS44%
83%MONEY17%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BAL
79-82-0 (49.1%)
Margin: -0.1 ATS +/-:
BOS Advantage
87-77-0 (53.1%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BAL Advantage
(52.8%)
Margin: -0.1 ATS +/-:
BOS
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
BAL
80-77-4
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0% Total +/-: +0.5
BOS
74-86-4
O: 46.3% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BOS
BAL
BOS
BAL
ML
50% 80-80
53% 83-73
47% 76-87
57% 90-69
ATS
58% 93-67
61% 95-60-1
48% 79-84
57% 90-68-1
TTL
46% 72-83-5
54% 81-70-5
47% 74-83-6
51% 78-75-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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