VCU
RAMSVCU
28-8 | Road
55
ILLINOIS
FIGHTING ILLINIILL
28-9 | Home
76
AI Model Win Probability
RAMS
70%
FIGHTING ILLINI
30%
RAMS
--
FIGHTING ILLINI
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
155.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
50%
Under 0
50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-15.0
ILLINOIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +15.0 points (Illinois)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around ILL -15.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ILL)
VCU By 1-7 points
4.8%
VCU By 8-14 points
1.1%
ILL By 1-7 points
15.3%
ILL By 8-14 points
25.3%
AI Model Projected Score
VCU
70
VCU
Illinois
85
ILLINOIS
Simulated Score
VCU
VCU
Illinois
ILLINOIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Fighting Illini
Win
30% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Fighting Illini (-11.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -15.0
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o150.5
Loss
Proj Total: 155.0
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 21, 2026
VCU @ ILL
55 - 76
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+18.3% more
Illinois: 14.8
vs
VCU: 12.5
Rebounding (L5)
+13.0% more
Illinois: 41.0
vs
VCU: 36.3
Free Throw % (L5)
+3.3%
Illinois: 74.8%
vs
VCU: 71.5%
Field Goal % (L5)
+3.2%
Illinois: 47.5%
vs
VCU: 44.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
VCU Score
70.0
55
ILL Score
85.0
76
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
33.0 / 40.7
38.0 / 22.0
Assists
14.8 / 12.5
15.0 / 8.0
Blocks
2.7 / 4.0
5.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
47.5 / 44.3
48.0 / 35.0
Free Throw %
74.8 / 71.5
65.0 / 33.0
Rebounding
41.0 / 36.3
45.0 / 29.0
Steals
3.1 / 6.5
5.0 / 8.0
Turnovers
5.9 / 8.3
11.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
VCU
Advantage
28-8-0
(77.8%)
Margin: 9.1
ATS +/-: +0.7
ILL
28-9-0
(75.7%)
Margin: 14.5
ATS +/-: +2.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
VCU
18-18-0
(50.0%)
Margin: 9.1
ATS +/-: +0.7
ILL
Advantage
22-15-0
(59.5%)
Margin: 14.5
ATS +/-: +2.9
⚖️ Over/Under
VCU
16-20-0
O: 44.4% / U: 55.6%
Total +/-: -0.2
ILL
15-22-0
O: 40.5% / U: 59.5%
Total +/-: -1.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ILL
VCU
ILL
VCU
ML
65%
24-13
72%
26-10
57%
20-15
67%
22-11
ATS
70%
26-11
81%
29-7
57%
20-15
67%
22-11
TTL
57%
21-16
58%
21-15
100%
35-0
100%
33-0
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