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TENNESSEE STATE

TIGERSTNST

23-10  |  Road

74
FINAL
Fri, Mar 20 • 11:07 AM ET
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IOWA STATE

CYCLONESISU

29-8  |  Home

108
AI Model Win Probability
TIGERS
65%
📊
CYCLONES
35%
TIGERS --
CYCLONES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
162.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 40%
Under 0 60%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.0
IOWA STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.0 points (Iowa State)
TigersTNST (-3.5) 0 CyclonesISU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Tigers Cover

34.5%

Cyclones Cover

65.5%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around ISU -4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ISU)

TNST By 1-7 points

20.1%

TNST By 8-14 points

9.3%

ISU By 1-7 points

27.4%

ISU By 8-14 points

21.6%

AI Model Projected Score
79
TENNESSEE STATE
83
IOWA STATE
Simulated Score
TENNESSEE STATE
IOWA STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Cyclones Win
35% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Cyclones (+24.5) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
A
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o147.5 Win
Proj Total: 162.0
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 20, 2026 TNST @ ISU 74 - 108
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +18.7% more
Iowa State: 14.8 vs Tennessee State: 12.5
Steals (L5) +9.1% more
Iowa State: 9.1 vs Tennessee State: 8.4
Blocks (L5) +55.3% more
Tennessee State: 4.0 vs Iowa State: 1.8
Free Throw % (L5) +23.3%
Tennessee State: 83.8% vs Iowa State: 60.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TNST Score 79.0 74
ISU Score 83.0 108
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 39.3 / 43.8 46.0 / 24.0
Assists 14.8 / 12.5 24.0 / 14.0
Blocks 1.8 / 4.0 5.0 / 9.0
Field Goal % 47.3 / 46.8 53.0 / 43.0
Free Throw % 60.5 / 83.8 78.0 / 68.0
Rebounding 35.0 / 39.6 43.0 / 29.0
Steals 9.1 / 8.4 9.0 / 8.0
Turnovers 9.8 / 12.0 11.0 / 16.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
19%TICKETS81%
57%MONEY43%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
33%TICKETS67%
36%MONEY64%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
55%TICKETS45%
51%MONEY49%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TNST
23-10-0 (69.7%)
Margin: 5.9 ATS +/-: +3.8
ISU Advantage
29-8-0 (78.4%)
Margin: 16.4 ATS +/-: +2.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TNST Advantage
18-11-1 (62.1%)
Margin: 5.9 ATS +/-: +3.8
ISU
22-14-1 (61.1%)
Margin: 16.4 ATS +/-: +2.3
⚖️ Over/Under
TNST
14-16-0
O: 46.7% / U: 53.3% Total +/-: +2.3
ISU
16-21-0
O: 43.2% / U: 56.8% Total +/-: -1.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ISU
TNST
ISU
TNST
ML
57% 21-16
52% 16-15
76% 26-8
63% 17-10
ATS
62% 23-14
68% 21-10
76% 26-8
64% 18-10
TTL
54% 20-17
52% 16-15
100% 34-0
100% 28-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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