Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Quakers @ Fighting Illini PENN @ ILL

PENNSYLVANIA

QUAKERSPENN

18-12  |  Road

70
FINAL
Thu, Mar 19 • 5:55 PM ET
Bon Secours Wellness Arena
View Odds Details →

ILLINOIS

FIGHTING ILLINIILL

28-9  |  Home

105
AI Model Win Probability
QUAKERS
70%
📊
FIGHTING ILLINI
30%
QUAKERS --
FIGHTING ILLINI --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
165.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 50%
Under 0 50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
ILLINOIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Illinois)
QuakersPENN (-3.5) 0 Fighting IlliniILL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Quakers Cover

46.0%

Fighting Illini Cover

54.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around ILL -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ILL)

PENN By 1-7 points

24.3%

PENN By 8-14 points

13.7%

ILL By 1-7 points

26.2%

ILL By 8-14 points

16.9%

AI Model Projected Score
82
PENNSYLVANIA
83
ILLINOIS
Simulated Score
PENNSYLVANIA
ILLINOIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Fighting Illini Win
30% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Fighting Illini (+25.5) Win
Proj Spread: -1.0
A
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o150.5 Win
Proj Total: 165.0
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 19, 2026 PENN @ ILL 70 - 105
Key Model Drivers
Field Goal % (L5) +3.4%
Illinois: 46.2% vs Pennsylvania: 42.8%
Steals (L5) +56.7% more
Pennsylvania: 8.3 vs Illinois: 3.6
Turnovers (L5) +31.8% more
Pennsylvania: 10.8 vs Illinois: 7.4
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +12.5%
Pennsylvania: 41.0% vs Illinois: 28.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
PENN Score 82.0 70
ILL Score 83.0 105
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 28.5 / 41.0 42.0 / 30.0
Assists 14.6 / 14.1 15.0 / 13.0
Blocks 3.1 / 2.9 2.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 46.2 / 42.8 50.0 / 45.0
Free Throw % 74.3 / 77.2 76.0 / 50.0
Rebounding 37.5 / 36.0 48.0 / 25.0
Steals 3.6 / 8.3 2.0 / 2.0
Turnovers 7.4 / 10.8 3.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
25%TICKETS75%
85%MONEY15%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
62%TICKETS38%
54%MONEY46%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
57%TICKETS43%
63%MONEY37%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PENN
--
ILL Advantage
28-9-0 (75.7%)
Margin: 14.5 ATS +/-: +2.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PENN
--
ILL Advantage
22-15-0 (59.5%)
Margin: 14.5 ATS +/-: +2.9
⚖️ Over/Under
PENN
--
ILL
15-22-0
O: 40.5% / U: 59.5% Total +/-: -1.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ILL
PENN
ILL
PENN
ML
65% 24-13
53% 16-14
57% 20-15
76% 22-7
ATS
70% 26-11
63% 19-11
57% 20-15
76% 22-7
TTL
57% 21-16
70% 21-9
100% 35-0
100% 29-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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