Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Jaguars @ Tigers USA @ AUB

SOUTH ALABAMA

JAGUARSUSA

21-12  |  Road

67
FINAL
Tue, Mar 17 • 6:05 PM ET
Neville Arena
View Odds Details →

AUBURN

TIGERSAUB

22-16  |  Home

78
AI Model Win Probability
JAGUARS
60%
📊
TIGERS
40%
JAGUARS --
TIGERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
157.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 60%
Under 0 40%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
AUBURN
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Auburn)
JaguarsUSA (-3.5) 0 TigersAUB (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Jaguars Cover

38.2%

Tigers Cover

61.8%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around AUB -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (AUB)

USA By 1-7 points

21.6%

USA By 8-14 points

10.7%

AUB By 1-7 points

27.2%

AUB By 8-14 points

20.1%

AI Model Projected Score
77
SOUTH ALABAMA
80
AUBURN
Simulated Score
SOUTH ALABAMA
AUBURN
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Tigers Win
40% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Tigers (+18.5) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
A
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o153.5 Loss
Proj Total: 157.0
B
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 17, 2026 USA @ AUB 67 - 78
Dec 4, 2020 USA @ AUB 81 - 90
Nov 12, 2019 AUB @ USA 70 - 69
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +104.4% more
Auburn: 3.7 vs South Alabama: 1.8
Turnovers (L5) +27.6% more
Auburn: 10.7 vs South Alabama: 8.4
Free Throw % (L5) +6.3%
Auburn: 70.6% vs South Alabama: 64.3%
Steals (L5) +21.4% more
South Alabama: 7.8 vs Auburn: 6.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
USA Score 77.0 67
AUB Score 80.0 78
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 33.5 / 38.6 36.0 / 35.0
Assists 10.7 / 12.7 18.0 / 15.0
Blocks 3.7 / 1.8 5.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 42.9 / 46.2 39.0 / 45.0
Free Throw % 70.6 / 64.3 82.0 / 55.0
Rebounding 36.4 / 34.5 42.0 / 31.0
Steals 6.1 / 7.8 4.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 10.7 / 8.4 9.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
11%TICKETS89%
57%MONEY43%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
68%TICKETS32%
79%MONEY21%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
52%TICKETS48%
59%MONEY41%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
USA Advantage
21-12-0 (63.6%)
Margin: 4.3 ATS +/-: +1.1
AUB
22-16-0 (57.9%)
Margin: 4.2 ATS +/-: -1.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
USA Advantage
17-14-0 (54.8%)
Margin: 4.3 ATS +/-: +1.1
AUB
15-23-0 (39.5%)
Margin: 4.2 ATS +/-: -1.5
⚖️ Over/Under
USA
16-15-0
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4% Total +/-: +2.3
AUB
22-16-0
O: 57.9% / U: 42.1% Total +/-: +4.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
AUB
USA
AUB
USA
ML
58% 22-16
47% 15-17
75% 24-8
57% 17-13
ATS
74% 28-10
53% 17-15
75% 24-8
57% 17-13
TTL
53% 20-18
66% 21-11
100% 32-0
100% 30-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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