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TCU

HORNED FROGSTCU

23-12  |  Road

73
FINAL
Thu, Mar 12 • 5:49 PM ET
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KANSAS

JAYHAWKSKU

24-11  |  Home

78
AI Model Win Probability
HORNED FROGS
65%
📊
JAYHAWKS
35%
HORNED FROGS --
JAYHAWKS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
153.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 45%
Under 0 55%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.0
KANSAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.0 points (Kansas)
Horned FrogsTCU (-3.5) 0 JayhawksKU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Horned Frogs Cover

30.9%

Jayhawks Cover

69.1%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around KU -5.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (KU)

TCU By 1-7 points

18.6%

TCU By 8-14 points

8.0%

KU By 1-7 points

27.2%

KU By 8-14 points

23.0%

AI Model Projected Score
74
TCU
79
KANSAS
Simulated Score
TCU
KANSAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Jayhawks Win
35% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Jayhawks (-4.5) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o146.5 Win
Proj Total: 153.0
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 12, 2026 TCU @ KU 73 - 78
Jan 6, 2026 TCU @ KU 100 - 104
Jan 22, 2025 KU @ TCU 74 - 61
Jan 6, 2024 TCU @ KU 81 - 83
Feb 20, 2023 KU @ TCU 63 - 58
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +51.6% more
Kansas: 12.5 vs TCU: 8.2
Blocks (L5) +24.6% more
Kansas: 5.0 vs TCU: 4.0
Rebounding (L5) +14.3% more
Kansas: 41.8 vs TCU: 36.6
Free Throw % (L5) +4.1%
Kansas: 73.6% vs TCU: 69.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TCU Score 74.0 73
KU Score 79.0 78
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 35.3 / 32.0 24.0 / 36.0
Assists 15.7 / 16.5 8.0 / 10.0
Blocks 5.0 / 4.0 5.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 44.2 / 46.0 38.0 / 39.0
Free Throw % 73.6 / 69.5 81.0 / 78.0
Rebounding 41.8 / 36.6 41.0 / 40.0
Steals 6.4 / 7.3 8.0 / 4.0
Turnovers 12.5 / 8.2 10.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
6%TICKETS94%
15%MONEY85%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
20%TICKETS80%
19%MONEY81%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
72%TICKETS28%
55%MONEY45%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TCU
23-12-0 (65.7%)
Margin: 5.3 ATS +/-: +1.1
KU Advantage
24-11-0 (68.6%)
Margin: 6.1 ATS +/-: +1.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TCU
19-16-0 (54.3%)
Margin: 5.3 ATS +/-: +1.1
KU Advantage
21-14-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 6.1 ATS +/-: +1.3
⚖️ Over/Under
TCU
15-20-0
O: 42.9% / U: 57.1% Total +/-: -0.3
KU
11-24-0
O: 31.4% / U: 68.6% Total +/-: -4.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
KU
TCU
KU
TCU
ML
57% 20-15
74% 26-9
68% 21-10
63% 19-11
ATS
49% 17-18
74% 26-9
68% 21-10
63% 19-11
TTL
60% 21-14
66% 23-12
100% 31-0
100% 30-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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