Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Tigers @ Volunteers AUB @ TENN

AUBURN

TIGERSAUB

22-16  |  Road

62
FINAL
Thu, Mar 12 • 11:25 AM ET
Bridgestone Arena
View Odds Details →

TENNESSEE

VOLUNTEERSTENN

25-12  |  Home

72
AI Model Win Probability
TIGERS
35%
📊
VOLUNTEERS
65%
TIGERS --
VOLUNTEERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
153.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 60%
Under 0 40%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
AUBURN
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (Auburn)
TigersAUB (-3.5) 0 VolunteersTENN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Tigers Cover

75.8%

Volunteers Cover

24.2%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around AUB -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (AUB)

AUB By 1-7 points

26.2%

AUB By 8-14 points

25.3%

TENN By 1-7 points

15.3%

TENN By 8-14 points

5.8%

AI Model Projected Score
80
AUBURN
73
TENNESSEE
Simulated Score
AUBURN
TENNESSEE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Tigers Loss
35% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Tigers (-5.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o145.5 Loss
Proj Total: 153.0
B
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 12, 2026 AUB @ TENN 62 - 72
Jan 31, 2026 AUB @ TENN 69 - 77
Mar 15, 2025 TENN @ AUB 70 - 65
Jan 25, 2025 TENN @ AUB 51 - 53
Feb 28, 2024 AUB @ TENN 84 - 92
Key Model Drivers
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +9.4%
Auburn: 36.8% vs Tennessee: 27.4%
Free Throw % (L5) +6.8%
Auburn: 73.3% vs Tennessee: 66.5%
Assists (L5) +22.8% more
Tennessee: 16.1 vs Auburn: 13.1
Rebounding (L5) +15.7% more
Tennessee: 40.1 vs Auburn: 34.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
AUB Score 80.0 62
TENN Score 73.0 72
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 27.4 / 36.8 31.0 / 27.0
Assists 16.1 / 13.1 15.0 / 6.0
Blocks 3.9 / 4.1 9.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 45.5 / 46.9 43.0 / 35.0
Free Throw % 66.5 / 73.3 75.0 / 65.0
Rebounding 40.1 / 34.7 39.0 / 40.0
Steals 7.8 / 8.2 8.0 / 2.0
Turnovers 9.2 / 10.0 6.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
6%TICKETS94%
26%MONEY74%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
30%TICKETS70%
42%MONEY58%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
70%TICKETS30%
71%MONEY29%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
AUB
22-16-0 (57.9%)
Margin: 4.2 ATS +/-: -1.5
TENN Advantage
25-12-0 (67.6%)
Margin: 9.3 ATS +/-: -1.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
AUB
15-23-0 (39.5%)
Margin: 4.2 ATS +/-: -1.5
TENN Advantage
17-19-1 (47.2%)
Margin: 9.3 ATS +/-: -1.0
⚖️ Over/Under
AUB
22-16-0
O: 57.9% / U: 42.1% Total +/-: +4.2
TENN
18-19-0
O: 48.7% / U: 51.3% Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TENN
AUB
TENN
AUB
ML
46% 17-20
58% 22-16
64% 21-12
75% 24-8
ATS
54% 20-17
74% 28-10
64% 21-12
75% 24-8
TTL
76% 28-9
53% 20-18
100% 33-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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