Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Bearcats @ Knights CIN @ UCF

CINCINNATI

BEARCATSCIN

18-15  |  Road

65
FINAL
Wed, Mar 11 • 11:15 AM ET
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UCF

KNIGHTSUCF

21-12  |  Home

66
AI Model Win Probability
BEARCATS
68%
📊
KNIGHTS
32%
BEARCATS --
KNIGHTS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
143.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 55%
Under 0 45%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
UCF
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (UCF)
BearcatsCIN (-3.5) 0 KnightsUCF (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bearcats Cover

46.0%

Knights Cover

54.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around UCF -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UCF)

CIN By 1-7 points

24.3%

CIN By 8-14 points

13.7%

UCF By 1-7 points

26.2%

UCF By 8-14 points

16.9%

AI Model Projected Score
71
CINCINNATI
72
UCF
Simulated Score
CINCINNATI
UCF
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Knights Win
32% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Knights (+2.5) Win
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u149.5 Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 11, 2026 CIN @ UCF 65 - 66
Feb 8, 2026 UCF @ CIN 72 - 92
Jan 11, 2026 CIN @ UCF 72 - 73
Apr 3, 2025 UCF @ CIN 88 - 80
Feb 5, 2025 CIN @ UCF 93 - 83
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +35.9% more
UCF: 6.2 vs Cincinnati: 4.6
Free Throw % (L5) +6.0%
UCF: 72.2% vs Cincinnati: 66.3%
Blocks (L5) +33.7% more
Cincinnati: 5.2 vs UCF: 3.4
Assists (L5) +19.1% more
Cincinnati: 17.8 vs UCF: 14.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CIN Score 71.0 65
UCF Score 72.0 66
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 33.3 / 40.1 13.0 / 42.0
Assists 14.4 / 17.8 10.0 / 13.0
Blocks 3.4 / 5.2 2.0 / 6.0
Field Goal % 45.5 / 45.6 34.0 / 34.0
Free Throw % 72.2 / 66.3 57.0 / 82.0
Rebounding 36.6 / 37.5 49.0 / 46.0
Steals 6.2 / 4.6 7.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 9.9 / 9.9 10.0 / 19.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
67%TICKETS33%
68%MONEY32%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
62%TICKETS38%
63%MONEY37%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
72%TICKETS28%
60%MONEY40%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CIN
18-15-0 (54.6%)
Margin: 5.5 ATS +/-: -0.2
UCF Advantage
21-12-0 (63.6%)
Margin: 2.3 ATS +/-: +1.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CIN
14-19-0 (42.4%)
Margin: 5.5 ATS +/-: -0.2
UCF Advantage
16-17-0 (48.5%)
Margin: 2.3 ATS +/-: +1.2
⚖️ Over/Under
CIN
12-21-0
O: 36.4% / U: 63.6% Total +/-: -4.6
UCF
13-20-0
O: 39.4% / U: 60.6% Total +/-: +1.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UCF
CIN
UCF
CIN
ML
55% 18-15
67% 22-11
65% 20-11
74% 23-8
ATS
55% 18-15
64% 21-12
65% 20-11
74% 23-8
TTL
61% 20-13
67% 22-11
100% 31-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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