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MISSISSIPPI STATE

BULLDOGSMSST

13-19  |  Road

61
FINAL
Wed, Mar 11 • 11:15 AM ET
Bridgestone Arena
View Odds Details →

AUBURN

TIGERSAUB

22-16  |  Home

79
AI Model Win Probability
BULLDOGS
55%
📊
TIGERS
45%
BULLDOGS --
TIGERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
162.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 75%
Under 0 25%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+6.0
AUBURN
Book Spread
--
Book Line
BulldogsMSST (-3.5) 0 TigersAUB (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bulldogs Cover

27.4%

Tigers Cover

72.6%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around AUB +6.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (AUB)

MSST By 1-7 points

26.8%

MSST By 8-14 points

24.3%

AUB By 1-7 points

16.9%

AUB By 8-14 points

6.8%

AI Model Projected Score
84
MISSISSIPPI STATE
78
AUBURN
Simulated Score
MISSISSIPPI STATE
AUBURN
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Bulldogs Loss
55% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Tigers (+8.5) Win
Proj Spread: +6.0
A
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o159.5 Loss
Proj Total: 162.0
A
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 11, 2026 MSST @ AUB 61 - 79
Feb 18, 2026 AUB @ MSST 85 - 91
Jan 14, 2025 MSST @ AUB 66 - 88
Mar 16, 2024 MSST @ AUB 66 - 73
Mar 2, 2024 MSST @ AUB 63 - 78
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +16.0% more
Mississippi State: 13.7 vs Auburn: 11.5
Assists (L5) +14.4% more
Mississippi State: 14.2 vs Auburn: 12.2
Steals (L5) +22.0% more
Auburn: 7.3 vs Mississippi State: 6.0
Free Throw % (L5) +11.4%
Auburn: 78.0% vs Mississippi State: 66.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MSST Score 84.0 61
AUB Score 78.0 79
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 36.7 / 35.7 37.0 / 26.0
Assists 12.2 / 14.2 15.0 / 9.0
Blocks 4.2 / 3.9 4.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 49.3 / 49.7 42.0 / 39.0
Free Throw % 78.0 / 66.6 64.0 / 33.0
Rebounding 30.5 / 30.6 43.0 / 39.0
Steals 7.3 / 6.0 10.0 / 3.0
Turnovers 11.5 / 13.7 7.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
8%TICKETS92%
20%MONEY80%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
54%TICKETS46%
61%MONEY39%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
66%TICKETS34%
87%MONEY13%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MSST
13-19-0 (40.6%)
Margin: -4.2 ATS +/-: -4.4
AUB Advantage
22-16-0 (57.9%)
Margin: 4.2 ATS +/-: -1.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MSST
10-22-0 (31.3%)
Margin: -4.2 ATS +/-: -4.4
AUB Advantage
15-23-0 (39.5%)
Margin: 4.2 ATS +/-: -1.5
⚖️ Over/Under
MSST
16-16-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +3.1
AUB
22-16-0
O: 57.9% / U: 42.1% Total +/-: +4.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
AUB
MSST
AUB
MSST
ML
58% 22-16
66% 21-11
75% 24-8
55% 17-14
ATS
74% 28-10
56% 18-14
75% 24-8
55% 17-14
TTL
53% 20-18
59% 19-13
100% 32-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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