SANTA CLARA
BRONCOSSCU
26-9 | Road
68
GONZAGA
BULLDOGSGONZ
31-4 | Home
79
AI Model Win Probability
BRONCOS
45%
BULLDOGS
55%
BRONCOS
--
BULLDOGS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
142.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
35%
Under 0
65%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+2.0
GONZAGA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around GONZ +2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (GONZ)
SCU By 1-7 points
26.8%
SCU By 8-14 points
18.6%
GONZ By 1-7 points
23.0%
GONZ By 8-14 points
12.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Santa Clara
72
SANTA CLARA
Gonzaga
70
GONZAGA
Simulated Score
Santa Clara
SANTA CLARA
Gonzaga
GONZAGA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Broncos
Loss
45% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Bulldogs (+8.5)
Win
Proj Spread: +2.0
A
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u157.5
Win
Proj Total: 142.0
A
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 10, 2026
SCU @ GONZ
68 - 79
Feb 14, 2026
GONZ @ SCU
94 - 86
Jan 8, 2026
SCU @ GONZ
77 - 89
Feb 25, 2025
GONZ @ SCU
95 - 76
Jan 18, 2025
SCU @ GONZ
103 - 99
Key Model Drivers
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+13.3%
Santa Clara: 40.3%
vs
Gonzaga: 26.9%
Blocks (L5)
+36.4% more
Gonzaga: 4.2
vs
Santa Clara: 3.1
Turnovers (L5)
+21.7% more
Gonzaga: 9.3
vs
Santa Clara: 7.6
Free Throw % (L5)
+18.2%
Gonzaga: 82.8%
vs
Santa Clara: 64.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SCU Score
72.0
68
GONZ Score
70.0
79
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
26.9 / 40.3
40.0 / 26.0
Assists
16.6 / 15.4
24.0 / 13.0
Blocks
4.2 / 3.1
4.0 / 1.0
Field Goal %
46.8 / 46.0
53.0 / 38.0
Free Throw %
82.8 / 64.6
57.0 / 88.0
Rebounding
35.0 / 33.3
35.0 / 41.0
Steals
7.0 / 6.1
4.0 / 7.0
Turnovers
9.3 / 7.6
8.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SCU
26-9-0
(74.3%)
Margin: 10.0
ATS +/-: +2.6
GONZ
Advantage
31-4-0
(88.6%)
Margin: 18.1
ATS +/-: +0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SCU
Advantage
17-16-1
(51.5%)
Margin: 10.0
ATS +/-: +2.6
GONZ
18-17-0
(51.4%)
Margin: 18.1
ATS +/-: +0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
SCU
20-13-1
O: 60.6% / U: 39.4%
Total +/-: +4.0
GONZ
10-25-0
O: 28.6% / U: 71.4%
Total +/-: -5.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
GONZ
SCU
GONZ
SCU
ML
71%
25-10
44%
15-19
69%
20-9
73%
22-8
ATS
69%
24-11
53%
18-16
69%
20-9
74%
23-8
TTL
57%
20-15
47%
16-18
100%
29-0
100%
31-0
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