SANTA CLARA
BRONCOSSCU
26-9 | Road
76
SAINT MARY'S
GAELSSMC
27-6 | Home
71
AI Model Win Probability
BRONCOS
41%
GAELS
59%
BRONCOS
--
GAELS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
158.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
45%
Under 0
55%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-16.0
SAINT MARY'S
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +16.0 points (Saint Mary's)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around SMC -16.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SMC)
SCU By 1-7 points
4.0%
SCU By 8-14 points
0.8%
SMC By 1-7 points
13.7%
SMC By 8-14 points
24.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Santa Clara
71
SANTA CLARA
Saint Mary's
87
SAINT MARY'S
Simulated Score
Santa Clara
SANTA CLARA
Saint Mary's
SAINT MARY'S
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Gaels
Loss
59% Win Prob
C
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Gaels (-4.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -16.0
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o149.5
Loss
Proj Total: 158.0
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 9, 2026
SCU @ SMC
76 - 71
Feb 25, 2026
SCU @ SMC
67 - 86
Jan 17, 2026
SMC @ SCU
54 - 62
Feb 11, 2025
SCU @ SMC
64 - 73
Jan 29, 2025
SMC @ SCU
67 - 54
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+67.2% more
Saint Mary's: 4.4
vs
Santa Clara: 2.6
Rebounding (L5)
+23.0% more
Saint Mary's: 42.9
vs
Santa Clara: 34.9
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+4.8%
Saint Mary's: 43.2%
vs
Santa Clara: 38.4%
Steals (L5)
+14.4% more
Santa Clara: 7.1
vs
Saint Mary's: 6.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SCU Score
71.0
76
SMC Score
87.0
71
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
43.2 / 38.4
30.0 / 44.0
Assists
15.3 / 17.6
13.0 / 11.0
Blocks
4.4 / 2.6
4.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
43.7 / 45.0
44.0 / 48.0
Free Throw %
76.0 / 78.9
89.0 / 36.0
Rebounding
42.9 / 34.9
40.0 / 30.0
Steals
6.1 / 7.1
1.0 / 4.0
Turnovers
9.5 / 9.4
10.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SCU
26-9-0
(74.3%)
Margin: 10.0
ATS +/-: +2.6
SMC
Advantage
27-6-0
(81.8%)
Margin: 12.8
ATS +/-: +1.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SCU
17-16-1
(51.5%)
Margin: 10.0
ATS +/-: +2.6
SMC
Advantage
19-13-0
(59.4%)
Margin: 12.8
ATS +/-: +1.3
⚖️ Over/Under
SCU
20-13-1
O: 60.6% / U: 39.4%
Total +/-: +4.0
SMC
14-18-0
O: 43.8% / U: 56.3%
Total +/-: -1.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SMC
SCU
SMC
SCU
ML
56%
18-14
44%
15-19
82%
23-5
73%
22-8
ATS
62%
20-12
53%
18-16
83%
24-5
74%
23-8
TTL
53%
17-15
47%
16-18
100%
29-0
100%
31-0
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