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SOUTH FLORIDA

BULLSUSF

25-9  |  Road

96
FINAL
Thu, Mar 5 • 4:05 PM ET
FedExForum
View Odds Details →

MEMPHIS

TIGERSMEM

13-19  |  Home

89
AI Model Win Probability
BULLS
82%
📊
TIGERS
18%
BULLS --
TIGERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
128.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 35%
Under 0 65%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-8.0
SOUTH FLORIDA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +8.0 points (South Florida)
BullsUSF (-3.5) 0 TigersMEM (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bulls Cover

78.8%

Tigers Cover

21.2%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around USF -8.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (USF)

USF By 1-7 points

25.3%

USF By 8-14 points

26.2%

MEM By 1-7 points

13.7%

MEM By 8-14 points

4.8%

AI Model Projected Score
68
SOUTH FLORIDA
60
MEMPHIS
Simulated Score
SOUTH FLORIDA
MEMPHIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Bulls Win
82% Win Prob
A
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Bulls (+7.5) Win
Proj Spread: -8.0
C
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u161.5 Loss
Proj Total: 128.0
A
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 5, 2026 USF @ MEM 96 - 89
Feb 19, 2026 MEM @ USF 66 - 87
Mar 7, 2025 USF @ MEM 68 - 84
Feb 13, 2025 MEM @ USF 80 - 65
Jan 18, 2024 USF @ MEM 74 - 73
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +36.8% more
South Florida: 16.6 vs Memphis: 10.5
Rebounding (L5) +26.2% more
South Florida: 43.2 vs Memphis: 31.9
Steals (L5) +23.6% more
South Florida: 9.5 vs Memphis: 7.3
Free Throw % (L5) +9.7%
South Florida: 80.8% vs Memphis: 71.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
USF Score 68.0 96
MEM Score 60.0 89
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 31.0 / 31.5 25.0 / 29.0
Assists 10.5 / 16.6 19.0 / 17.0
Blocks 3.3 / 2.8 5.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 42.3 / 41.8 47.0 / 48.0
Free Throw % 71.1 / 80.8 79.0 / 73.0
Rebounding 31.9 / 43.2 36.0 / 40.0
Steals 7.3 / 9.5 3.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 11.7 / 10.1 9.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
94%TICKETS6%
76%MONEY24%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
63%TICKETS37%
55%MONEY45%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
32%TICKETS68%
46%MONEY54%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
USF Advantage
25-9-0 (73.5%)
Margin: 11.7 ATS +/-: +1.9
MEM
13-19-0 (40.6%)
Margin: -1.5 ATS +/-: -2.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
USF Advantage
18-15-0 (54.6%)
Margin: 11.7 ATS +/-: +1.9
MEM
14-18-0 (43.8%)
Margin: -1.5 ATS +/-: -2.9
⚖️ Over/Under
USF
15-18-0
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6% Total +/-: +1.0
MEM
16-16-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MEM
USF
MEM
USF
ML
62% 20-12
61% 20-13
68% 21-10
52% 16-15
ATS
62% 20-12
61% 20-13
68% 21-10
52% 16-15
TTL
66% 21-11
52% 17-16
100% 31-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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