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MISSISSIPPI VALLEY STATE

DELTA DEVILSMVSU

3-30  |  Road

77
FINAL
Thu, Mar 5 • 3:30 PM ET
Lee E. Williams Athletics and Assembly Center
View Odds Details →

JACKSON STATE

TIGERSJKST

12-21  |  Home

85
AI Model Win Probability
DELTA DEVILS
36%
📊
TIGERS
64%
DELTA DEVILS --
TIGERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
142.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 50%
Under 0 50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
JACKSON STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Jackson State)
Delta DevilsMVSU (-3.5) 0 TigersJKST (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Delta Devils Cover

42.1%

Tigers Cover

57.9%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around JKST -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (JKST)

MVSU By 1-7 points

23.0%

MVSU By 8-14 points

12.2%

JKST By 1-7 points

26.8%

JKST By 8-14 points

18.6%

AI Model Projected Score
70
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY STATE
72
JACKSON STATE
Simulated Score
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY STATE
JACKSON STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Tigers Win
64% Win Prob
B
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Tigers (+11.5) Win
Proj Spread: -2.0
A
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u145.5 Loss
Proj Total: 142.0
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 5, 2026 MVSU @ JKST 77 - 85
Feb 7, 2026 JKST @ MVSU 97 - 81
Mar 8, 2025 JKST @ MVSU 66 - 62
Feb 8, 2025 MVSU @ JKST 44 - 92
Mar 9, 2024 MVSU @ JKST 67 - 68
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +30.2% more
Jackson State: 7.5 vs Mississippi Valley State: 5.8
Blocks (L5) +23.6% more
Jackson State: 2.4 vs Mississippi Valley State: 2.0
Rebounding (L5) +9.8% more
Jackson State: 35.1 vs Mississippi Valley State: 32.0
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +5.3%
Jackson State: 30.2% vs Mississippi Valley State: 24.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MVSU Score 70.0 77
JKST Score 72.0 85
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 30.2 / 24.9 39.0 / 50.0
Assists 8.4 / 13.0 8.0 / 15.0
Blocks 2.4 / 2.0 1.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 37.5 / 44.0 39.0 / 51.0
Free Throw % 75.3 / 70.9 80.0 / 80.0
Rebounding 35.1 / 32.0 34.0 / 25.0
Steals 7.5 / 5.8 7.0 / 3.0
Turnovers 12.4 / 15.4 7.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
2%TICKETS98%
3%MONEY97%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
39%TICKETS61%
39%MONEY61%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
65%TICKETS35%
43%MONEY57%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MVSU
3-30-0 (9.1%)
Margin: -18.8 ATS +/-: +0.4
JKST Advantage
12-21-0 (36.4%)
Margin: -13.5 ATS +/-: -3.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MVSU Advantage
16-16-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -18.8 ATS +/-: +0.4
JKST
14-19-0 (42.4%)
Margin: -13.5 ATS +/-: -3.6
⚖️ Over/Under
MVSU
14-17-1
O: 45.2% / U: 54.8% Total +/-: +1.0
JKST
16-16-1
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +4.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
JKST
MVSU
JKST
MVSU
ML
77% 24-7
91% 30-3
73% 19-7
75% 18-6
ATS
77% 24-7
82% 27-6
73% 19-7
75% 18-6
TTL
58% 18-13
58% 19-14
100% 26-0
100% 24-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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