Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Golden Lions @ Tigers UAPB @ JKST

ARKANSAS-PINE BLUFF

GOLDEN LIONSUAPB

13-19  |  Road

78
FINAL
Tue, Mar 3 • 3:45 PM ET
Lee E. Williams Athletics and Assembly Center
View Odds Details →

JACKSON STATE

TIGERSJKST

12-21  |  Home

81
AI Model Win Probability
GOLDEN LIONS
64%
📊
TIGERS
36%
GOLDEN LIONS --
TIGERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
147.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 30%
Under 0 70%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
JACKSON STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Jackson State)
Golden LionsUAPB (-3.5) 0 TigersJKST (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Golden Lions Cover

46.0%

Tigers Cover

54.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around JKST -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (JKST)

UAPB By 1-7 points

24.3%

UAPB By 8-14 points

13.7%

JKST By 1-7 points

26.2%

JKST By 8-14 points

16.9%

AI Model Projected Score
73
ARKANSAS-PINE BLUFF
74
JACKSON STATE
Simulated Score
ARKANSAS-PINE BLUFF
JACKSON STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Tigers Win
36% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Tigers (+1.5) Win
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u153.5 Loss
Proj Total: 147.0
A
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 3, 2026 UAPB @ JKST 78 - 81
Feb 9, 2026 JKST @ UAPB 63 - 84
Mar 6, 2025 JKST @ UAPB 76 - 69
Feb 10, 2025 UAPB @ JKST 78 - 94
Mar 7, 2024 UAPB @ JKST 84 - 89
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +17.2% more
Jackson State: 13.6 vs Arkansas-Pine Bluff: 11.6
Rebounding (L5) +14.8% more
Jackson State: 35.6 vs Arkansas-Pine Bluff: 31.1
Assists (L5) +37.7% more
Arkansas-Pine Bluff: 14.6 vs Jackson State: 9.1
Steals (L5) +21.3% more
Arkansas-Pine Bluff: 8.6 vs Jackson State: 6.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UAPB Score 73.0 78
JKST Score 74.0 81
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 28.7 / 29.5 33.0 / 37.0
Assists 9.1 / 14.6 7.0 / 11.0
Blocks 2.6 / 2.6 2.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 36.8 / 44.5 39.0 / 47.0
Free Throw % 72.9 / 71.6 80.0 / 88.0
Rebounding 35.6 / 31.1 34.0 / 34.0
Steals 6.8 / 8.6 9.0 / 4.0
Turnovers 13.6 / 11.6 10.0 / 16.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
42%TICKETS58%
30%MONEY70%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
58%TICKETS42%
86%MONEY14%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
36%TICKETS64%
73%MONEY27%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UAPB Advantage
13-19-0 (40.6%)
Margin: -3.8 ATS +/-: +1.1
JKST
12-21-0 (36.4%)
Margin: -13.5 ATS +/-: -3.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UAPB Advantage
13-16-1 (44.8%)
Margin: -3.8 ATS +/-: +1.1
JKST
14-19-0 (42.4%)
Margin: -13.5 ATS +/-: -3.6
⚖️ Over/Under
UAPB
14-16-0
O: 46.7% / U: 53.3% Total +/-: -0.2
JKST
16-16-1
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +4.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
JKST
UAPB
JKST
UAPB
ML
77% 24-7
74% 23-8
73% 19-7
73% 19-7
ATS
77% 24-7
73% 22-8-1
73% 19-7
73% 19-7
TTL
58% 18-13
68% 21-10
100% 26-0
100% 26-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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