Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Ragin' Cajuns @ Red Wolves UL @ ARST

LOUISIANA

RAGIN' CAJUNSUL

11-22  |  Road

58
FINAL
Fri, Feb 27 • 4:10 PM ET
First National Bank Arena
View Odds Details →

ARKANSAS STATE

RED WOLVESARST

20-12  |  Home

81
AI Model Win Probability
RAGIN' CAJUNS
41%
📊
RED WOLVES
59%
RAGIN' CAJUNS --
RED WOLVES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
151.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 40%
Under 0 60%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-27.0
ARKANSAS STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +27.0 points (Arkansas State)
Ragin' CajunsUL (-3.5) 0 Red WolvesARST (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Ragin' Cajuns Cover

0.3%

Red Wolves Cover

99.7%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around ARST -27.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ARST)

UL By 1-7 points

0.3%

UL By 8-14 points

0.0%

ARST By 1-7 points

2.2%

ARST By 8-14 points

8.0%

AI Model Projected Score
62
LOUISIANA
89
ARKANSAS STATE
Simulated Score
LOUISIANA
ARKANSAS STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Red Wolves Win
59% Win Prob
C
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Red Wolves (-14.5) Win
Proj Spread: -27.0
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o146.5 Loss
Proj Total: 151.0
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 27, 2026 UL @ ARST 58 - 81
Feb 19, 2026 ARST @ UL 79 - 62
Feb 26, 2025 ARST @ UL 83 - 64
Jan 16, 2025 UL @ ARST 63 - 83
Mar 9, 2024 UL @ ARST 62 - 89
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +66.3% more
Arkansas State: 15.6 vs Louisiana: 9.4
Assists (L5) +64.3% more
Arkansas State: 15.0 vs Louisiana: 9.1
Rebounding (L5) +55.9% more
Arkansas State: 42.1 vs Louisiana: 27.0
Steals (L5) +14.4% more
Arkansas State: 6.9 vs Louisiana: 6.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UL Score 62.0 58
ARST Score 89.0 81
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 32.1 / 39.8 34.0 / 27.0
Assists 15.0 / 9.1 19.0 / 9.0
Blocks 3.5 / 4.5 6.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 46.5 / 42.4 47.0 / 31.0
Free Throw % 73.8 / 75.2 50.0 / 52.0
Rebounding 42.1 / 27.0 49.0 / 43.0
Steals 6.9 / 6.0 2.0 / 9.0
Turnovers 15.6 / 9.4 12.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
3%TICKETS97%
11%MONEY89%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
36%TICKETS64%
44%MONEY56%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
51%TICKETS49%
54%MONEY46%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UL
11-22-0 (33.3%)
Margin: -7.0 ATS +/-: -0.8
ARST Advantage
20-12-0 (62.5%)
Margin: 5.8 ATS +/-: -0.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UL
14-18-1 (43.8%)
Margin: -7.0 ATS +/-: -0.8
ARST Advantage
15-15-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 5.8 ATS +/-: -0.5
⚖️ Over/Under
UL
15-18-0
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6% Total +/-: -0.3
ARST
15-14-1
O: 51.7% / U: 48.3% Total +/-: +2.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ARST
UL
ARST
UL
ML
48% 15-16
66% 21-11
53% 16-14
63% 19-11
ATS
58% 18-13
66% 21-11
53% 16-14
63% 19-11
TTL
61% 19-12
62% 20-12
100% 30-0
100% 30-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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