Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Eagles @ Trojans MORE @ LR

MOREHEAD STATE

EAGLESMORE

20-13  |  Road

76
FINAL
Thu, Feb 26 • 3:45 PM ET
Jack Stephens Center
View Odds Details →

LITTLE ROCK

TROJANSLR

12-20  |  Home

70
AI Model Win Probability
EAGLES
80%
📊
TROJANS
20%
EAGLES --
TROJANS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
143.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 50%
Under 0 50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
LITTLE ROCK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Little Rock)
EaglesMORE (-3.5) 0 TrojansLR (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Eagles Cover

38.2%

Trojans Cover

61.8%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around LR -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LR)

MORE By 1-7 points

21.6%

MORE By 8-14 points

10.7%

LR By 1-7 points

27.2%

LR By 8-14 points

20.1%

AI Model Projected Score
70
MOREHEAD STATE
73
LITTLE ROCK
Simulated Score
MOREHEAD STATE
LITTLE ROCK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Trojans Loss
20% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Trojans (-2.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Sim
Proj Spread:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o138.5 Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 26, 2026 MORE @ LR 76 - 70
Dec 16, 2025 LR @ MORE 64 - 78
Feb 8, 2025 LR @ MORE 76 - 62
Jan 9, 2025 MORE @ LR 59 - 53
Mar 9, 2024 MORE @ LR 69 - 55
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +36.4% more
Little Rock: 4.7 vs Morehead State: 3.4
Steals (L5) +16.5% more
Little Rock: 6.1 vs Morehead State: 5.3
Assists (L5) +13.8% more
Little Rock: 13.4 vs Morehead State: 11.8
Field Goal % (L5) +4.7%
Morehead State: 47.3% vs Little Rock: 42.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MORE Score 70.0 76
LR Score 73.0 70
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 34.8 / 33.7 29.0 / 26.0
Assists 13.4 / 11.8 10.0 / 15.0
Blocks 4.7 / 3.4 2.0 / 0.0
Field Goal % 42.6 / 47.3 43.0 / 50.0
Free Throw % 72.1 / 76.4 63.0 / 68.0
Rebounding 33.9 / 34.1 32.0 / 37.0
Steals 6.1 / 5.3 8.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 9.9 / 9.8 8.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
59%TICKETS41%
6%MONEY94%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
59%TICKETS41%
52%MONEY48%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
75%TICKETS25%
80%MONEY20%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MORE Advantage
20-13-0 (60.6%)
Margin: 0.5 ATS +/-: +0.7
LR
12-20-0 (37.5%)
Margin: -3.6 ATS +/-: -2.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MORE Advantage
17-13-0 (56.7%)
Margin: 0.5 ATS +/-: +0.7
LR
12-18-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -3.6 ATS +/-: -2.0
⚖️ Over/Under
MORE
16-14-0
O: 53.3% / U: 46.7% Total +/-: +3.5
LR
15-15-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LR
MORE
LR
MORE
ML
52% 16-15
62% 20-12
68% 17-8
68% 21-10
ATS
45% 14-17
59% 19-13
68% 17-8
68% 21-10
TTL
58% 18-13
53% 17-15
100% 25-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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